Why Trump’s Focus On Falling Death Rates Could Be Dangerous
Indeed You alone know Yourself by Your internal potency O Supreme Person Origin of all Lord of all beings God of Gods Lord of the universe The Supersoul You are the Supreme Primal Objective You are the ultimate resting place of the universe You are inexhaustible and You are the oldest You are the maintainer of the eternal religion, the Personality of Godhead Oh master of the senses Oh Primal Lord O Limitless One God of Gods Refuge of the universe You are the invincible source The cause of all causes You are the knower of everything and all that is knowable You are the supreme refuge above the material modes O limitless form This whole cosmic manifestation is pervaded by You O unbounded power You are the master of limitless might You are all-pervading and thus You are everything Omniscient The ancient The Ruler of the whole world Minuter than the atom The supporter of all Of form inconceivable Effulgent like the Sun and Beyond the darkness There is nothing whatsoever higher than you You are the Sapidity in Water The Light in the Moon and the Sun You are the syllable OM in all the Vedas Sound in ether You are the Virility in men You are the sweet fragrance in earth and the brilliance in fire You are the life in all beings The austerity in the austere You are the eternal seed of all beings The intelligence of the intelligent You are the Splendor of the Splendid You are the Strength of the Strong Guest

Top Recent

Why Trump's Focus On Falling Death Rates Could Be Dangerous

Why Trump's Focus On Falling Death Rates Could Be Dangerous

5 years ago

~6.8 mins read

President Donald Trump and Republican governors are pointing to fewer coronavirus deaths to suggest that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic has passed - and to blunt criticism that a surge of new infections in more than half the states is proof the country reopened too soon.

But that's a dangerous gamble. Death rates tell nothing about the current spread of the virus and only offer a snapshot of where the country was roughly three weeks ago. If the caseloads in states like Texas, Arizona and Florida are any indication, the U.S. will almost certainly see a spike in deaths in July that could undermine the entire nationwide reopening effort.
Advertisement
"If you're going to do that with the death rate, you should be prepared to look at the death rate in a month or so," said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard's school of public health. "You might not find it so attractive."

Trump on Thursday tweeted the number of infections is going up because of "great testing while the number of deaths (mortality rate) goes way down."

The nationwide death rate over the last two weeks is about 2.6 percent of all known cases, or roughly half of what it was since the pandemic began.
But public health officials say Trump's logic is backwards and could give people a false sense of security. The very testing the president blames for increasing case numbers is keeping the death rate low, particularly by identifying younger people who are more likely to be out and could unknowingly be spreading disease.

Advertisement

The mortality rate is declining, in fact, because more vulnerable, mostly older Americans are still sheltering in place, or at least much less likely to be venturing out to newly opened bars and restaurants.

In Arizona, for example, people under 44, now make up 60 percent of cases, up from around 40 percent in mid-April, according to the state's coronavirus dashboard.
"There's been a large increase in the 20 to 44 [year old] age bracket," Gov. Doug Ducey said Thursday.
In Florida, the median age for all new infections this past week was 34, down from about two years from the week before and down significantly since the pandemic began, the state health department reported.
But that doesn't mean the virus is less deadly or contagious: As infections soar, especially in states like Florida and Arizona that have older populations, the risk of catastrophe grows.

Advertisement

Most important, death follows weeks of illness in most coronavirus cases, which is why experts expect the death toll to rise sharply in the coming weeks.

"The deaths that get reported today are people who got infected three weeks ago," said Robert Amler, a former HHS regional health administrator.
Some GOP governors are starting to make their own calculations, heeding calls from local health systems worried about having enough beds to treat a surge of patients.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday paused his state's reopening plan as hospitals in Houston and other locales scrambled to free up ICU beds. Abbott, who led one of the nation's most aggressive reopenings, is now urging people to stay home as his state contends with more than 5,000 new daily infections. The number of hospitalizations there has doubled in the last 10 days, according to the state health department. Abbott also issued an executive order suspending elective surgeries in some counties seeing the sharpest spikes in cases.