Sanctions have destroyed the Iranian middle class – the very driver of stability and moderation. By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan and Nader Habibi Professor in Economics of the Middle East, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Germany. Henry J Leir Professor of Practice in the Economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University. Share Save In the decades since the end of the Cold War, a powerful myth has taken hold in the West. It is the myth of the “smart” sanction, a foreign-policy tool that is supposed to be a clean, precise, and humane alternative to war. The belief is that by skillfully targeting a hostile regime’s key revenue sources and finances, one can bring it to heel without harming its citizens. This is a dangerous delusion. As our recently published research on Iran reveals, the sanctions regime on Iran was far from being a surgical strike; instead, it was a sledgehammer that smashed the very group that represents the best hope for a more moderate and stable future – the middle class. In this sense, the devastation of the Iranian middle class constitutes a major strategic failure for the West. The rise of Iran’s modern middle class was a century-long process. It began under the Pahlavi dynasty with the emergence of a secular, professional class of civil servants, professionals, and managers who built the country’s modern infrastructure, funded by oil rents. After the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic continued to expand the ranks of the middle class, lifting millions of previously marginalised families from poverty into a new world of education and opportunity. This educated, empowered class became the political foundation for change. It was the power base for the reformist movement of President Mohammad Khatami in the late 1990s. It was the faces in the crowds of the 2009 Green Movement, and the driving force behind the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests. It was the entrepreneurs building a vibrant tech scene from scratch in Tehran, creating local versions of Amazon (Digikala) and Uber (Snapp) that served millions of their fellow citizens. This was the engine of a modern Iran looking to the future. Sanctions laid waste to it all. How can we be so certain this was the fault of sanctions, and not just the regime’s own chronic mismanagement? To find out, we had to move beyond anecdote and partisan claims. In our peer-reviewed study published by the European Journal of Political Economy, we used a robust methodology to answer this question: We built a “virtual Iran” out of data. Using a powerful statistical technique called the synthetic control method, we created a data-driven twin of Iran: A composite, weighted average of comparable countries like Tunisia, Qatar, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia that mirrored Iran’s economic and social trajectory perfectly before 2012, but was never hit with the international sanctions. This rigorous approach allowed us to see what would have happened in the absence of sanctions, providing a clear, empirical baseline to measure the true damage. Although Iran has been a target of various sanctions for more than four decades because of its radical foreign policy, the intensity and scale of the new sanctions that were introduced in 2012 were at a much higher level in comparison with the previous years. The results are heartbreaking. Starting in 2012, Iran’s middle class began to shrink dramatically compared with its sanction-free twin in our model. Between 2012-2019, the sanctions caused an average 17 percentage point gap between the potential and actual size of Iran’s middle class. By 2019, a year after US President Donald Trump launched his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the cumulative effect was devastating: The middle class was now 28 percentage points smaller than it should have been. These are not abstract numbers. These are millions of real people. They are the engineers, doctors, teachers, small business owners, and retirees who had finally achieved a measure of economic security, only to see it all evaporate under the post-2012 sanctions regime. This isn’t just a story told by our model; you can see it in how Iranians see themselves. Before the sanctions hit, in 2005, a global representative survey (World Value Survey) found that a confident 79 percent of the respondents identified as middle-income. They had arrived. In early 2020, that number had collapsed to less than 64 percent. It is a devastating collapse that economists on the ground in Iran have also confirmed. This social decline was not an accident; it was the direct result of predictable economic mechanisms. First, the sanctions starved the country of the foreign investment needed to create skilled, well-paying jobs. The capital that would have built factories and funded tech startups vanished. Second, they reduced the country’s ability to trade. Thousands of small and medium-sized businesses, which are the backbone of any healthy society, were bankrupted, suddenly unable to import essential parts or export their finished goods. Finally, and perhaps most cruelly, sanctions spurred rampant inflation. As the currency collapsed, the life savings of families were wiped out. For salaried professionals and pensioners on fixed incomes, the very core of the middle class, this was a catastrophic blow. They became the “new poor”. As a result, the share of informal employment increased substantially. Of course, sanctions did not operate in a vacuum. They landed on an economy already hobbled by the Iranian government’s own political corruption and mismanagement. Our analysis, however, explicitly accounts for these pre-existing weaknesses. The sanctions acted as a “misery multiplier”, turning a difficult economic situation into an inescapable social catastrophe. This is where a story about economics becomes a story of profound injustice. A country’s middle class is its source of stability and its most powerful force for moderation. It acts as a buffer against extremism, advocates for gradual reforms, and has the resources to sustain organised political movements. By crushing this group, Western governments didn’t just create hardship; they cleared the field for the very hardliners they claimed to oppose. The regime could now plausibly blame all suffering on a foreign enemy, while its control over a crippled economy gave it even more power over a desperate population. The ultimate irony of “maximum pressure” is that it created the perfect conditions for the regime’s most extreme elements to thrive. When people’s primary concern is putting food on the table, it is far harder to organise for democratic reform. Desperation does not breed democracy; it breeds instability, which empowers authoritarians. Sanctions were presented as a surgical strike, but in reality, they amounted to economic war against an entire society – and a self-defeating one at that. As sweeping UN sanctions are reimposed on Iran today, those who pushed for them should ask themselves: Are we making the world a safer place, or are we just creating more misery and empowering the very actors that we claim to oppose? These sanctions are no different from previous ones. They are a reckless gamble that will end up punishing the country’s future leaders instead of its current ones. The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance. Follow Al Jazeera English:...

The mass mobilisation for Palestine across Italy echoed in Gaza. We are truly grateful. By Eman Abu Zayed Palestinian writer from Gaza. Share Save Last Monday, I was out in the street trying to catch an internet signal in Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip – something that has become almost impossible in Gaza. Our home had just been bombed for the third time during the war, and we had been forced to flee for the tenth time. I had just lost everything once again. My heart was heavy with grief, and everything around me reminded me of the loss that had befallen us. When I finally managed to connect, videos, photos, and audio messages from Italy flooded my phone. I saw crowds of people marching in the streets, waving Palestinian flags and chanting together for our freedom. I saw squares filled with banners reading “Stop the War” and “Free Palestine”, and faces showing a mix of anger and hope. They were trying to send us a message: We hear you, we stand with you. I felt immense joy. It was the first time I saw pro-Palestinian protests on such a scale and impact. Independent Italian unions had called a 24-hour strike, and Italians had responded en masse. Across more than 70 Italian municipalities, people took to the streets to show us that they cared about Gaza, that they supported our cause, that they wanted an immediate end to the genocide. This was not a Muslim or Arab-majority nation. It was a Western country, whose government refuses to recognise a Palestinian state and continues to support Israel. And yet, the Italian people walked out for us, to express their solidarity with us. This mobilisation shows that solidarity with Palestinians is not limited to those close to us or from the same cultural background, but extends to people from across the world, even in places where political elites continue to support Israel. In Gaza, these scenes of Italian solidarity spread from phone to phone, bringing a ray of hope amid the rubble, hunger, and bombs. People were forwarding these videos on chat apps, watching with amazement the Italian crowds. These images and footage brought rare smiles to many Palestinian faces. The feeling that we are not completely abandoned, that the outside world is mobilising to stop the war, crept in. Over the past week, I have also been following closely the Sumud Flotilla that is heading towards Gaza. The Italian government put immense pressure on the delegation of 50 Italian citizens to give up. The majority of them refused and are now on board various ships heading towards us. I was also able to communicate with some Italian journalists on board the ship, who shared with me words full of encouragement and hope, assuring us that we are not alone and that there are those continuing to fight for us, despite the distances and challenges. The protests and the flotilla have not been the only ray of hope from Italy that has reached me. In June, after reading some of my articles, two Italians – Pietro and Sara – and Fadi, a Palestinian living in Italy, reached out to me. Their support was not limited to words; it was tangible. They helped me share my writings so they could reach more people. They also constantly checked on me, asking about me and my family, and sending me messages full of hope and encouragement. In August, with the help of my friends, I managed to publish my personal story in the Italian newspaper Il Manifesto, sharing our suffering and resilience with thousands of readers. Before the war, I did not know much about Italy. I knew it was a beautiful country with an interesting history and friendly people. But I never expected to see Italians mobilising for Palestine, taking to the streets in large numbers in our support. Today, I feel admiration and appreciation for the Italian people. Their participation in protests, their personal support, and their role in initiatives like the Sumud Flotilla have truly made me feel that our cause is not distant from the hearts of people around the world, that international solidarity is not just words, but real actions. I hope to see similar protests in other countries, to feel that the rest of the world truly sees our suffering and supports our right to life, freedom and dignity. To the Italian people – and all others who mobilise for Gaza, I want to say: We see you, we hear you, you fill our hearts with joy. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance. Follow Al Jazeera English:...

Tensions over border disputes had sharply escalated in July during a five-day conflict between the neighbouring countries. By News Agencies Share Save Thailand’s new prime minister has said his government will propose a referendum to address an ongoing dispute with its neighbour, Cambodia, over a demarcation agreement. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul told reporters on Monday that “in order to avoid further conflict”, the government will push for a vote on whether Thailand should revoke the existing memorandum of understanding on border issues with Cambodia. Thailand and Cambodia have long argued over undemarcated points along their 817km (508-mile) land border, but tensions sharply escalated in July during a five-day conflict. The fighting ended after a ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia on July 28. In the worst fighting between the two countries in a decade, at least 48 people were killed and hundreds of thousands were temporarily displaced. But for years, the two countries have relied on an agreement, signed in 2000, which sets out the framework for joint survey and demarcation of the land boundary. In another agreement in 2001, it provided a framework for cooperation and potential resource sharing in maritime areas claimed by both countries. However, in Thailand, the agreements have come under public scrutiny over the past decade, especially following the latest clashes. According to Charnvirakul, the new referendum would provide a clear mandate on the matter of the agreements. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, cautioned against the revocation of the agreements as solving the issue. “Their revocation may not be a direct solution to the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, because it could create a vacuum,” he told the Reuters news agency. “The government must make clear what will replace them, and this has to be agreed by Cambodia as well,” he said. At the same time, Charnvirakul also pledged in his inaugural speech in Parliament to address the country’s economy and push for a new and more democratic constitution as he faces a self-imposed deadline to call for elections in four months. Follow Al Jazeera English:...

According to the national weather agency, Typhoon Bualoi caused waves as high as 8 metres in the early hours of Monday. By Edna Mohamed and News Agencies Share Save At least 12 people have been killed and 17 others are missing as Typhoon Bualoi hit Vietnam with heavy rain and strong winds, tearing through communities, flooding roads and damaging houses, according to state media. In the early hours on Monday, the typhoon made landfall and caused waves as high as 8 metres (26 feet), according to the national weather agency. The typhoon then weakened to a tropical storm that moved into Laos, state media reported. The storm swept away temporary bridges and flooded roads and low-water crossings across several provinces. Flooding in cities submerged vehicles, and many highland communities were cut off, according to The Associated Press news agency. State media said rescue teams were searching for 17 missing fishermen. Strong winds collapsed houses in Hue City, Thanh Hoa and the province of Ninh Binh. In the Quang Tri province, strong winds broke the ropes anchoring a fishing boat taking shelter, leaving nine crew members and their vessel adrift, four of whom managed to swim to shore. In the Gia Lai province, families reported losing contact with eight people on a fishing trip. According to state media, more than 347,000 households lost power before the typhoon made landfall just after midnight on Sunday. Nguyen Tuan Vinh, in the Nghe An province, cleaning up debris, told the Reuters news agency it was “one of the strongest” storms he had experienced. Another resident, Ho Van Quynh, also told Reuters that they stayed up all night to protect their home. “I stayed awake the whole night fearing the door would be pulled off by strong winds,” said Ho Van Quynh. In advance of the typhoon hitting, Vietnam’s government evacuated more than 28,500 people. Hundreds of flights were cancelled or delayed as four airports in central provinces were closed. Since Friday, Bualoi has caused at least 20 deaths in the Philippines, mainly from drowning and falling trees, according to officials. It becomes the second severe storm to hit Asia in a week, after Typhoon Ragasa in the northern Philippines and Taiwan, which made landfall in China, killing at least 28 people. Follow Al Jazeera English:...