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Why Oil Prices Have Been Falling

~1.5 mins read

Global oil prices slid for the third straight day Tuesday, reflecting investors' deepening concerns about declining demand.

Brent crude, the global price benchmark, for September delivery fell as much as 1.7% to a one-month low of $83.40 per barrel. Since July 4, brent crude has dropped 4.6%.

Traders and investors blamed the decline on worries that China's economy can't sustain previously anticipated oil consumption. The country's second-quarter economic growth slowed more than expected. In addition, doubt persists about the willingness of top Communist Party officials to reform an economy hamstrung by a depressed real estate sector.

Meanwhile, average crude shipments from Russia in the past four weeks dropped to their lowest level since January, potentially signaling demand weakness elsewhere. The decline also could indicate increased compliance with OPEC+ output restrictions.

U.S. economic growth also has weakened, with gross domestic product in the first-quarter advancing just 1.4% on an annualized basis. That marked the weakest growth since the second quarter of 2022 and significant decline from 3.4% in last year's fourth quarter.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast estimates U.S. growth recovered somewhat to 2% in the second quarter. The U.S. government will release its first second-quarter growth estimate July 27.

Overall, oil demand and prices forecasts have declined in recent months. A slowdown in demand may stave off a global oil supply deficit the International Energy Agency predicted earlier this year.

Nonetheless, plenty of uncertainty remains. Just last week, the U.S. Energy Information Agency predicted Brent crude would average $87.97 per barrel in the third quarter and $89.64 in the fourth quarter. That's up from $83.25 and $86.64, respectively, from its forecast only a month ago.

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Supporting LGBTQIA2+ health begins in the workplace

With thoughtful action, health care business professionals can contribute to greater health equity for these underserved individuals. Some ways to do so include:

1. Take an active interest in better understanding the needs and perspectives of the LGBTQIA2+ community.

Conducting research, including surveys and consumer focus groups, is a good way to help better understand specific health needs and priorities. "This community has historically been excluded from studies and research that would be very helpful in understanding their needs and their challenges," says Dr. Enrique Caballero, an endocrinologist at Brigham and Women's Hospital and the faculty director of International Innovation Programs in the HMS Office for External Education. "We need to get to know the population better."

2. Prioritize inclusive language.

Whether you are involved directly in care delivery or other aspects of health care, pay attention to the words you use — for both customers and employees. Gendered language in job postings, informational or marketing materials, and even casual conversation can be off-putting. That means lost opportunities for organizations and LGBTQIA2+ individuals. Slight shifts in language and conscious efforts like adding pronouns to your email signature speak volumes.

3. Train staff to be community allies.

Gaining awareness of our unconscious biases and making shifts in our everyday language doesn't happen overnight. Health care industry businesses can help their staff be better allies to the LGBTQIA2+ community by providing access to workshops delivered by community members.

"No one becomes fully competent after one conversation, lecture, or video," Dr. Caballero says. "It's a lifelong process in which we all learn how to be more respectful, inclusive, and to embrace diversity."

4. Support companies and community organizations that focus on LGBTQIA2+ health.

Show, don't tell. Making financial contributions to organizations already on the ground and working with this population demonstrates that you aren't just concerned about the bottom line. You are truly dedicated to helping the LGBTQ+ population access good health care.

5. Hire LGBTQIA2+ staff.

The best way to ensure your company is prioritizing health equity is by having a diverse group at the decision-making table. It is crucial to have employees that represent the diversity of your customer base — not only diversity in gender expression and sexuality, but also diversity in race, ethnicity, age, ability, and beyond.

"Part of our obligation is to really open the doors for everybody," Dr. Caballero says. "Talent is not exclusive to a particular group, and I think that is important to embrace as an organization."

6. Include LGBTQIA2+ representation in all communications.

Diverse representation is key. Make a pointed effort to include same-sex couples, non-traditional family units, and transgender and non-binary individuals in all kinds of communications, participating in everyday activities.

7. Acknowledge any missteps.

On an institutional level, company acknowledgments can go a long way in rebuilding trust with the LGBTQIA2+ community. Within the organization, it's valuable to encourage ongoing communication about company culture.

"All organizations should have a system in place for people to provide feedback on how things are going and to report anything that they want to call the leadership team's attention to," Dr. Caballero says. "Having a system that truly listens to members of the organization — and being sure that follow-up action is taken — is very important."

8. Make action consistent beyond Pride Month.

Embracing the LGBTQIA2+ community consistently and with commitment all year long "is truly an opportunity for everyone," Dr. Caballero says. "This is not good just for the members of the community, but for everybody that works in a place that embraces diversity, equity, and inclusion."

Industry professionals turn to HMS for custom corporate learning programs, including on topics like LGBTQIA2+ health, that leave a lasting impact on participants. To provide these programs, HMS leverages faculty expertise from throughout the School and the entire Harvard University community to share with health care teams. To learn about HMS Corporate Learning custom programs, read about the approach or hear from clients themselves.

Source: Harvard Health Publishing

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Investopedia

US Consumer Spending Remains Surprisingly Resilient

~2.1 mins read

Consumers appear to still have more spending left in them, despite market watchers anticipating a sales slowdown in the second half of 2024.

Many economists expected U.S. consumers to begin to take a breather and slow down on their purchases in June. But today's retail sales report showed spending was unchanged. The Census Bureau also updated its results for May, moving its sales data higher by 20 basis points to now reflect a 0.3% rise when compared with the prior month.

“Don’t count the U.S. consumer out just yet,” wrote Scott Anderson, BMO Capital Markets chief U.S. economist.

Strong retail sales helped the economy perform better than expected in 2023 helping dodge a recession. It has kept up a healthy pace so far in 2024, despite worries that a slowdown was in store for the second half of the year.

However, some economists are now asking if consumers are set to keep spending.

“There has been some concern about the economy and the consumer over the last few months, and while this is just one data point, it will help dispel the belief that consumers are feeling too much heat,” wrote Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro.

Sales have the potential to rise further as a fluke depressed motor vehicle sales, economists said.

“Motor vehicle sales were likely held back artificially last month as a major cyber attack on auto dealer computer systems required sales to be recorded manually, introducing lags in recording that will be made up in July,” BMO’s Anderson wrote.

The parts of the retail sales report used in calculating gross domestic product (GDP), which economists call the control group, came in even stronger, up 0.9% in June. That measurement strips out components like motor vehicle sales, gasoline, restaurants and building materials.

That growth, paired with a downshift in inflation, could mean that GDP growth will be higher than expected, wrote Ben Ayers, senior economist for Nationwide.

Stronger spending is good for the economy, and it’s unlikely to create too many worries with the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to cut interest rates at its Sept. 18 meeting.

“Resilient economic growth allows the Fed to focus on controlling inflation as they set interest rate policy,” wrote Bill Adams, Comerica Bank chief economist.

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Why Oil Prices Have Been Falling

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Supporting LGBTQIA2+ health begins in the workplace

US Consumer Spending Remains Surprisingly Resilient

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