Extradition Request: Igboho’s Fate Hangs In The Balance
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• Beninise Court Adjourns Case To Monday • He Had No Beninise Passport At Point Of Arrest, Lawyer Clarifies • Igboho Is A Political Refugee, Says Adebanjo • Federal High Court Orders DSS To Produce Detained Associates July 29
Five days after the arrest of Yoruba Nation agitator, Sunday Adeyemo, aka Sunday Igboho, at the Cardinal Bernardin International Airport, Cotonou, Benin Republic, it is becoming increasingly clear that the legal battle to either extradite him to Nigeria or hand him back his freedom might get protracted.
Yesterday, despite the presence of his lawyer and supporters at the Cour De’appal De Cotonou, the case was not heard. The trail judge had last Thursday adjourned the case to yesterday after ordering the release of his wife, Ropo, whom it ruled had not committed any offence.
One of Igboho’s lawyers, Yomi Aliu (SAN) told The Guardian that the case was not heard yesterday but was adjourned to Monday, July 26.
This is even as another of his counsels, Ibrahim David Salami, has clarified that Igboho was arrested with Nigerian and German passports contrary to claims that he was being tried for possessing a Beninise passport despite not being a citizen of the country.
Salami told BBC Yoruba that, “it is not true that Benin Republic passport was found on Sunday Igboho when he was arrested.
“What was found on him were Nigerian and German passport. His wife had only her German passport on her at the point of arrest.â€
Meanwhile, Maxwell Adeleye, the Communications Manager of the umbrella body of Yoruba self-determination groups, Ilana Omo Oodua, has disclosed that Nigeria did not file any charge against Igboho when he was arraigned at the court on Thursday.
Adeleye, in a statement yesterday, said the lawyers handling the case reported after Thursday’s proceedings that lgboho could not be extradited to Nigeria.
The statement read: “Yesterday (Thursday) the court set Mrs. Adeyemo, lgboho’s wife, free since it has been found that she has committed no offence and there’s no complain whatsoever against her. Consequently, her German passport was returned to her.
“The lawyers handling the case reported after the proceedings that Chief Sunday Adeyemo lgboho cannot be extradited to Nigeria for two principal reasons: 1. That contrary to insinuations, Nigeria and Benin have no Extradition Agreement; 2. That Nigeria has not been able to come up with charges that could lead the court to order lgboho’s extradition to Nigeria.
“What Nigerian Government came up with were mere allegations against Ighoho such as trafficking in arms and inciting violence that could result in the social disturbance without evidence which the Government of Benin Republic considered spurious and untenable, and insufficient to warrant extradition.
“Lastly, the case has been adjourned till Monday, July 26 to allow the Nigerian Government bring up whatever evidence they may have, and Mr. lgboho has been taken back to the police custody.â€
In a related development, a Federal High Court, Abuja, has ordered the Department of State Services (DSS) to produce the 12 detained associates of Igboho before it on July 29.
Justice Obiora Egwuatu gave the order yesterday after counsel to the applicants, Pelumi Olajengbesi, moved the ex-parte motion marked FHC/ABJ/CS/647/2021 dated July 7 and filed July 8.
Olajemgbesi had told the Court that the 12 associates of Igboho had been held incommunicado in an underground cell since their arrest on July 2.
The Judge also ordered the DSS boss to appear in court on the day to show cause why the court should not admit Igboho’s aides to bail conditionally or unconditionally.
The judge also granted the plea of the applicant, through the affidavit of urgency filed on why the matter should be heard expeditiously irrespective of the imminent court vacation.
The court said that it has taken into consideration the provisions of Sections 35 and 36 of the 1999 Constitution, as well as Section 32 of the Administration of Human Right Act and saw the need to interfere in the matter of the applicants.
Justice Egwuatu subsequently ordered parties in the matter to appear before him next week Thursday. Applicants in the matter are Abdulateef Ofeyagbe, Amoda Babatunde, Tajudeen Erinoyen, Diakola Ademola, Abideen Shittu, Jamiu Noah, and Ayobami Donald. Others are Adelabe Usman, Oluwapelimi Kunle, Raji Kazeem, Taiwo Opeyemi and Bamidele Sunday.
The two respondents in the matter are Director General of the DSS and the DSS. As the legal battle for the release of Igboho and his associates continues, leader of Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, has declared that the Federal Government has no right to seek Igboho’s extradition from Benin Republic.
The 93-year-old, who spoke in a chat with Arise TV on Thursday monitored by The Guardian, said Igboho was leading a popular revolt, adding that the Federal Government was terrified of his popularity.
His words: “He (Igboho) is a political refugee. He didn’t commit any crime here. He didn’t waylay or kill anybody. He didn’t run away from anybody after committing a crime. He ran for his life because the-power-that-be wants to kill him because of his agitation, because he’s leading a popular revolt.
“When they see the crowd that Igboho is pulling at every meeting, that is what is terrifying them. Can Buhari summon the crowd that Igboho is summoning each time he holds a meeting, even with the fact that he (Buhari) gives money to who will attend the meeting, that is a rented crowd?
“You are looking for somebody’s life and you ask him to come and surrender himself. Who will do that? He has muzzled everybody. The press can’t talk and there is a limit to questions that broadcasters can ask now without them closing the station.â€
Recall that in a bloody raid on Igboho’s Soka residence in Ibadan, Oyo State on July 1, this year, the DSS had arrested and detained 13 of his associates. Two of Igboho’s supporters later identified as Adogan and Alfa were also killed during the raid.
The secret police later presented seven AK-47 rifles allegedly recovered from the house during the raid as well as three pump-action guns, 30 fully charged AK-47 magazines, 5,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition, five cutlasses, one jack-knife, one pen knife, two pistol holsters, a pair of binoculars, a wallet containing $5, local and international driving licences in his name, ATM cards, a German residence permit No. YO2N6K1NY bearing his name, two whistles, 50 cartridges and 18 walkie-talkies.
Others were three charm jackets/traditional body armour, two laptops, one Toshiba and one Compaq laptop, Igboho’s passport and those of his aides.
The DSS had said its operatives carried out the raid after an intelligence report confirmed that he was stockpiling arms in the home.
“Sunday Adeyemo, aka Sunday Igboho is now on the run. Igboho may run as far as he can. He may hide as long as he wants. He might have attacked security operatives as his strength carried him. But this will be the end of his shenanigans. Soon, he will not have a hiding place. His strength will sure fail him. And the law will catch up with him. The law may be slow. But it will be steady,†DSS spokesperson, Peter Afunanya, had declared.
Nigeria’s Esther Toko In Good Start After the long await, the Tokyo 2020 Olympics Games finally began yesterday with a symbolic show of hope and tenacity in the face of adversity at its opening ceremony.
With the fanfare, the theatre, the famous athletes carrying the flag, the kabuki dance and the glistening fireworks, yesterday’s opening ceremony saw the host, Japan, display its rich culture, particularly with show of light and colour.
Amidst searing heat outside the stadium, the atmosphere was not exactly party-like. But hundreds of Japanese locals brimmed with anticipation and pride despite the widespread opposition to the Games
About 950 VIPs and world leaders inside the 68,000-seat main arena in Tokyo watched yesterday’s display amid rising COVID-19 case totals in the country, which forced organisers to ban crowds.
The opening ceremonies saw directors made the best use of projection technology to add colour and pageantry. Several large volleys of firework did add a burst of sound to what was otherwise an eerily quiet event, after organisers opted against playing artificial crowd noises in the arena.
A moment of silence for all victims of the COVID-19 pandemic was also observed, after which dancers representing Japanese woodworkers took the stage representing the country’s history and culture.
They formed Olympic rings made from the wood of trees planted the last time Japan hosted the Olympics in 1964, before the traditional Parade of Nations with athletes filing into the arena under the banners of their countries – though their numbers were much-reduced from previous years.
Plagued by the pandemic, scandals among officials, and strongly divided opinions among locals, Japan will hope the touching spectacle will help coalesce positive feeling around the £13billion sporting extravaganza.
A BBC Sports reporter, who covered the opening ceremony said: “As night falls, happy smiles are replaced by angry chanting. As we are asked to stand and observe a moment of silence to commemorate all those who have died of COVID in the past year, we can clearly hear the protesters outside the stadium. It’s an eerie, sobering reminder that most people in Japan are furious these games are still taking place.
“There are hundreds of people gathered who are chanting, among other things, “stop the Olympics.†A poll in the leading Asahi Shimbun newspaper in May suggested more than 80 percent of the population want the Games cancelled or postponed.
Meanwhile, Team Nigeria began its quest for medals on a good note yesterday with Esther Toko placing 5th in her heat in the Rowing event. The Nigerian overcame stiff challenge from other competitors in women’s single sculls with a time of 8:58.49. She will now compete in the repechage today for a chance at making the quarterfinals.
Union, Northern Governors Bicker Over Planned Sale Of Kaduna Textiles
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Irked by the state of the textile industry in the country, officials of the National Union of Textile Garment and Tailoring Workers of Nigeria (NUTGTWN) have warned the 19 Northern governors against selling the comatose Kaduna Textiles Limited (KTL).
The textile union leaders also challenged the Federal Government to be more committed to the revival of the industry by ensuring that every Nigerian patronises locally-made fabrics. They urged President Muhammadu Buhari to lead by example.
Besides, the union leaders called for the revival of the Kaduna textile industry and asked the Northern governors to pay the outstanding entitlements, amounting to N687 million, owed laid-off workers.
The NUTGTWN President, John Adaji, yesterday, said the laid-off workers had suffered untold hardship following the non-payment of their entitlements.
Adaji said: “The union’s attention has been drawn to a plan to sell some of the assets of KTL. We shall mobilise our members and take all legal means to stop the sale of the company’s assets without settling the outstanding benefits of the workers in line with the court order since 2005.
“On the occasion of this year’s Eid-el-Kabir, we wish to reiterate our call on the Northern governors to take necessary steps to revive KTL. The union is ever ready to support any effort to resuscitate KTL, including sourcing for investors willing to invest in the company. However, in the meantime, the settlement of entitlements of the workers amounting to N687, 073,346 should be given urgent priority.
“These workers have suffered untold hardship due to lay off without pay. Urgent settlement of their entitlements, including a support to them and their families, will go a long way in reducing their burden and alleviate their increasing destitution, poverty and desperation. KTL is the oldest textile company in Nigeria and, indeed, Africa and the proud legacy of the late Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello.
“Textile industry remains the key driver of sustainable jobs and development for most national economies of developing nations like Nigeria. We commend the practical initiatives and efforts by the federal government to revive the cotton, textile and garment (CTG) sector as part of the effort of the current administration to diversify the economy and create mass employment.
“The Nigerian CTG sector can transform Nigeria’s rural economy and revive the textile and garment industries by creating mass decent employment, improve internally generated revenue across three tiers of government, reduce over $4 billion import bill incurred annually on textile and apparel according to the CBN and help the country safeguard and earn foreign exchange. A revived textile industry provides sustainable jobs and living wages as well as necessary revenues for the government to provide the needed infrastructure for development.â€
Adaji reminded Buhari of his campaign promise to revive the textile industry, saying that Executive Order 003, which mandated government agencies to spend more of their budgets on locally-produced goods, would help in the recovery of the textile and garment industry if fully implemented.
“But there is still a huge gap between policy pronouncement and policy implementation. We once again call on the relevant agencies of government to make Executive Order 003 a reality by patronizing locally produced textilesâ€. He added.
Adaji also said that Nigerians should stop paying lip service to the revival of the textiles industry in the country when they continue to patronise the locally made fabrics.
“The President should lead by example by always appearing in public functions in Nigeria-made fabrics. When all Nigerians see our President in our local fabrics always, they will follow suit in always appearing in it. This will be the beginning of proving that we are serious in reviewing the industryâ€.
Meanwhile, the union leader lamented rising cases of insecurity, saying: “This year’s Eid-el-Kabir also comes against the background of worsening insecurity in virtually all parts of the country as we continue to witness rising cases of kidnapping, armed robbery, banditry and terror attacks which most of the victims are the poor working men and women in the farms, workplace, home, places of worship, teachers and schoolchildren.
“The point cannot be overstated, the state exists primarily for the protection of lives and property and ensuring the wellbeing of the people. To this extent, we call on the government at all levels to rise to the challenge of insecurity in the country. Security agencies must revisit their strategy and take proactive measures to secure all Nigeriansâ€.
SERAP Sues Buhari Over $25b Overdrafts Taken From CBN
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Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has filed a lawsuit against President Muhammadu Buhari and others at the Federal High Court, Abuja, over the $25 billion (N9.7trillion) overdraft obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) since May 29, 2015, including the projects on which the overdrafts have been spent and repayments of all overdrafts to date.
No date has been fixed for the hearing of the suit.
Joined in the suit, as respondents, are the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, SAN; the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed; and the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele.
The suit followed SERAP’s Freedom of Information (FoI) request to President Buhari, stating: “Disclosing details of overdrafts and repayments would enable Nigerians to hold the government to account for its fiscal management and ensure that public funds are not mismanaged or diverted.â€
In the suit, FHC/ABJ/CS/559/2021, filed last week, the organisation is seeking an order of the court directing and compelling Buhari to disclose details of overdrafts taken from the CBN by successive governments between 1999 and 2015 and whether the $25 billion overdraft reportedly obtained from CBN is within the five per cent limit of the actual revenue of the government for 2020.
The suit filed on behalf of SERAP by its lawyers, Kolawole Oluwadare and Ms Adelanke Aremo, states that transparency and accountability in the spending of CBN overdrafts would also ensure that public funds are properly spent, reduce the level of public debt, and improve the ability of the government to invest in essential public goods and services, such as quality education, healthcare, and clean water.
• Task force nabs four ex-convicts, 69 others The Lagos State Police Command, on Sunday, paraded some protesters arrested during the Yoruba nation, Oodua Republic demonstration around the Gani Fawehimi Freedom Park on Saturday.
Speaking at the command headquarters yesterday, the Lagos State Commissioner of Police, Hakeem Odumosu, said 49 suspects were arrested for violating the ban on rallies in the state.
He said: “The press briefing is on what happened on Saturday during the Oodua Republic Mega Rally. The Lagos State Government and the police command kicked against any rally of any kind in the state due to the intelligence report gathered about the rally.
“We advised the demonstrators to steer clear of Lagos State due to the fact that it could not afford another loss that was incurred during the #EndSARS.
“Yesterday, some people came to foment trouble in the state during the rally and the command arrested 49 suspects during the rally. The suspects would be handed to the State Criminal Investigation and Intelligence Department, Panti, Yaba, for discreet investigation and prosecution.â€
Meanwhile, the umbrella body of Yoruba Self-Determination Groups, Ilana Omo Oodua, has said no fewer than 21 Yoruba nation agitators were arrested during the protest held at Ojota.
When contacted, the spokesperson for the group, Maxwell Adeleye, said: “We are making moves to bail them. They are detained at Panti Police Station. We demand immediate release of everyone arrested at the Lagos rally.â€
MEANWHILE, the Lagos State Environmental and Special Offences Unit (Taskforce) has arrested 71 miscreants in a dawn raid of black spots in Oshodi, just as it impounded 227 motorcycles from riders plying prohibited routes.
The police, in a statement, said the raid was in line with the directive of the Lagos State Commissioner of Police, CP Hakeem Odumosu, to rid Oshodi of traffic robbers and miscreants who harass and dispossess motorists and commuters of their belongings.
The agency’s team, led by its Chairman, CSP Shola Jejeloye, raided and combed Oshodi Oke, Oshodi Underbridge, Toyota, Fatai Atere areas, among others, where many ex-convicts, drug addicts and peddlers were arrested between 5:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.
Jejeloye had, on reaching the agency’s headquarters in Oshodi, personally screened the suspects one after the other before releasing five of them.
Some of the motorists and passers-by who witnessed the arrest of some of the miscreants commended the agency for evacuating some of the miscreants, adding that they had made Oshodi inaccessible at dawn and at nightfall.
Some of the suspects arrested for their notoriety and criminal conduct in the areas included Solomon Ebenezer (29), Toyin Shoboyejo (29), Chidebere Peter (29) and Demola Olowe (a.k.a FGN), all ex-convicts.
Also, the task force impounded 227 motorcycles for plying restricted routes.
The bikes were impounded at Ikeja Along, Ogba, Alaguntan, Abule Egba, Command, Gate and Ayobo.
The chairman reiterated that the agency would intensify efforts to complement the command in ridding the state of criminals, while also continuing with the clampdown on motor bikes plying prohibited routes in the state.
By Saxone Akhaine, Abdulganiyu Alabi (Kaduna), Joseph Wantu (Makurdi) and Ibrahim Obansa (Lokoja)
05 July 2021 | 4:16 am
Caution herders against killing farmers, Benue groups tell Buhari Bishops tutor security forces on terrorism war, say Nigeria won’t break up
Bandits have killed seven people and injured others in three local councils of Kaduna State, at the weekend. This is as another set kidnapped seven people in Zaria.
The Commissioner for Internal Security and Home Affairs, Samuel Aruwan, said the killer bandits shot the seven citizens dead in Chikun, Kajuru and Giwa local councils.
Aruwan stated yesterday: “These developments were reported to the Kaduna State Government by security agencies on Saturday.
“According to the agencies, bandits shot four kidnapped citizens at the outskirts of Tsohon Gayan in Chikun. Two were identified as Solomon Bamaiyi and Francis Moses from Kakau village of Chikun. The third was identified to hail from Kachia town and the fourth remains yet unidentified.â€
THE seven were kidnapped at the staff quarters of National Turberclosis and Leprosy Training Centre, Zaria, yesterday.
At the residential staff quarters of the centre, the criminals took away five staff and two other people, including nursing mothers.
A source within the quarters told journalists that the bandits came around 12.30 a.m. yesterday and cordoned off the area to avoid intervention by security forces.
The bandits also attacked the Saye Divisional Police headquarters.
Confirming the incident yesterday, the Police Public Relations Officer (PPRO), ASP Mohammed Jalige, said after the command received the report, it launched investigation into the matter.
IN Benue State, three major socio-cultural organisations in Benue have urged President Muhammadu Buhari to stop militia Fulani herdsmen from killing Nigeria’s farmers, noting that their activities caused 95 per cent of insecurity and hunger in the country.
Mdzough-U-Tiv (MUT), Ochetoha K’ Idoma (OKI) and Omi Ny’Igede (ONI), in a joint statement yesterday, maintained that the devastating effect of the killings hit Benue, the Food Basket of the Nation, hard.
They urged the Federal Government to also arrest leaders of Miyetti Allah the way it arrested the leader of Indogenour People of Biafra (IPOB), Nnamdi Kanu, for trial.
MEANWHILE, the Archbishop of Kaduna Diocese, Anglican Communion, Timothy Yahaya, has said that the bandits’ modus operandi in the country showed that they are more intelligent than the country’s security operatives.
Yahaya was speaking at the Christ Anglican Church, Kaduna, before ordaining five into priesthood and 12 others as deacons. His assertion was on the heels reported killing of seven persons in the latest attacks in Kaduna.
For the country to win the war against banditry and kidnapping, its security men must be upgraded educationally and in quick response to the activities of the criminal elements.
KOGI State Chairman of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Bishop John Ibenu, has declared that the country will not break up despite the call for secession by some aggrieved groups, according to a revelation to him.
Ibenu disclosed this in Lokoja while fielding questions from journalist at the 29th anniversary of Chapel of Freedom International.
He explained that God told him that peace would soon return to the land. “They are talking of separation, they don’t know the founder of Nigeria. The founder of Nigeria is God, who signifies unity. Each person speaks according to their level of understanding. We are not going to join issues with them,†he said.
Ohanaeze begs for IPOB leader’s access to medicare, family Spokesman of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Emma Powerful, has said that the group’s leader, Nnamdi Kanu, never authorised killing of anybody for charms, noting that killing is abominable act in Igboland.
In a statement yesterday, IPOB described as fallacious, the claims by a man, who claimed to be Eastern Security Network (ESN) commander, that the IPOB leader ordered him to kill security agents and 10 girls to prepare fortification charms.
Powerful alleged that the Department of State Services (DSS) could have coerced people to make such false statements against ESN, IPOB and its leader, Kanu.
He stated that the so-called ‘ESN Commander’ claimed that he joined ESN in 2019, whereas ESN was established on December 12, 2020.
“This exposed the fact that they coerced him to be making rubbish statements against ESN, IPOB and Kanu.
“We want to make it clear that the purported ESN commander is not known to us and we discovered that he is a mole planted by government and security agencies in ESN. We know our commanders and they know us. The so-called man must be one of the criminals recruited to infiltrate ESN, but our gallant men were on alert and smarter,†he stated.
IPOB called on human rights organisations and the international community to note that “ESN and IPOB do not kill innocent citizens because they were not set up for that purpose, but to drive away armed Fulani terrorists, who took over our forests and farmlands, thereby preventing our mothers from cultivating their farmland.â€
HOWEVER, a faction of Ohanaeze Ndigbo has begged the Federal Government to grant Kanu access to medical facilities and his family members.
In a statement in Abakaliki, yesterday, the Secretary-General, Okechukwu Isiguzoro, noted complaints about Kanu being denied access to medical attention, adding that such might attract empathy from the international community or spur chaos.
He commended the Federal Government for granting the IPOB leader access to his lawyer, adding that such gestures should be extended to his family members, for his siblings to visit him.
The statement read in part: “Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide had alerted President Muhammadu Buhari of the consequences of denying the detained IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu, access to health facilities and services through the doctor of his choice, as one is presumed innocent until proven guilty by the courts.
“Ndigbo had remained calm and peaceful over the re-arrest of Kanu. We extol Igbo youths that obeyed our earlier instructions to shun any form of protest and procession, but urge those that were misled and regretted going into armed struggle to surrender immediately and be free.â€
2022-2024 MTEF: As FG Seeks ‘fresh’ N15 Trillion Loan
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The government regularly talks about fiscal reforms that would see it scaling up spending on infrastructure and channeling more resources to growing the non-oil sector, but translating the intention to action seems far-fetched as the 2022-2024 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP yet reflects old habits.
As of March, the country’s documented debt stock exceeded N33 trillion, raising concerns from different stakeholders, including the Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, on its sustainability.
At the event, global leaders raised concerns about Nigeria’s and other African countries’ debt burdenMinister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, said the country had no alternative to continuous loan accumulation. The Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, re-echoed the position the same week.
Hence, it may not shock many Nigerians that the new economic projection document is contemplating “fresh borrowingsâ€. What may shock many is the amount and proportion of the planned loans to total spending and proposed capital votes.
Within the three years covered in MTEF/FSP, the Federal Government plans to take fresh loans amounting to roughly N15 trillion – an amount spread accordingly: N4.893 trillion (2022), N4.75 trillion (2023) and N5.356 trillion (2024). The estimated loans are evenly split between domestic and external sources.
The loan estimates are 60 per cent or N5.6 trillion higher than the total N9.4 trillion earmarked for capital projects in the three years. Next year’s estimated capital vote is N3.262 trillion as against N3.162 trillion proposed for 2023 and N3.155 trillion planned for 2024. The amount approved in this year’s budget, which is N4.125 trillion, is larger than what is being contemplated for any of the three fiscal years starting from 2022 even though the government wants to increase total spending.
Next year’s budget, though would be adjusted in line with economic realities before presentation, is estimated at N13.982 trillion. It will increase by roughly 10 per cent trillion to N15.458 trillion in 2023 while the total spending will jump to N16.772 trillion.
The proposed new borrowing is about one-third of the total N46.3 trillion the FG intends to spend between 2022 and 2024 while the capital projects will take just one-fifth of the spending estimates.
The finance minister while presenting the 2022-2024 MTEF/FSP to the National Economic Council (NEC), last week, said it was prepared against the backdrop of global economic recovery, amidst improved vaccination outlook and lower incidence of (COVID-19) infection. Hence, the document, which was endorsed by NEC, assumed the economy is rising from the ashes of COVID-19 with full recovery in sight.
Whereas there is a remarkable achievement of vaccination in different parts of the globe, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said less than two per cent of Africans have received the first dose of the vaccine. At the moment, a new wave driven by a dreaded Delta variant is sweeping across Africa.
“The speed and scale of Africa’s third wave are like nothing we have seen before,†WHO’s regional director for Africa, Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, said. With the recent surge in new cases, there is a renewed air of uncertainty across regional blocs.
As the highly infectious Delta variant sends panic across the globe, countries are relapsing into new restrictions and lockdowns, which economists warn could derail the gradual recovery. The uncertainty, as expected, is driving the dollar, a haven during economic uncertainty, to new highs.
On the strength of the assumption that the economy is on a recovery path, the government has reviewed upward oil benchmarks to 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd) at $57pb for next year. At $57pb and $55pb, the government hopes to scale up production to 2.23 million bpd and 2.22 million bpd in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
The oil production and price assumption between 2022-2023 are more ambitious than this year’s in terms of volume and price. The revised budget signed by the President contemplates 1.86 million bpd and $40pb benchmarks. With the global economy getting used to handling COVID-19, Bala Zakka, an energy expert, said the price target “is reasonable and achievable†while the volumes are not.
“There has been an energy shortage. A lot of industrial clusters had stopped production owing to the COVID-19. Now that the global community understands how to handle the pandemic without necessarily shutting down the economy, the industrial sector will need the power to continue to produce. This means the prices are realistic. I don’t see the price coming down below $55 pb,†he said.
Zakka said achieving 2.22 million bpd (a combination of crude and condensate) in the next two years would depend on the perception of the Oil Producing Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) about demand and supply. In the event Nigeria’s quota is less than the target, he said, the country would be left with the option of presenting “its unique economic situation†for OPEC+ consideration.
With the restiveness in the Niger Delta relatively brought under control, he said, the country’s crude production is not adversely affected by the local security concern except the scaremongering, which could discourage expatriates coming into the country.
The MTEF/FSP document says the non-oil revenue performance has been impressive and heading in the right direction†but noted with concern that “PMS under-recovery and the cost of securing oil pipelines are however weighing on down on oil revenuesâ€.
The naira has been traded in wide swing at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFE) market since its adoption for official transactions even as experts have suggested that the local currency is overvalued. But the medium-term projection is N410.15/$. While a higher exchange rate may translate to more money for the government, the underestimation could be a major distortion for official foreign exchange-denominated transactions.
Last week, the naira closed officially at N411.25/$. With the reserves losing as much $2 billion in the first half of the year and still falling daily, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s capacity to intervene in the market to save the naira is weakening. The exchange rate at the parallel market, which a fairly valued naira could close up with, jumped to N502/$ last week as illiquidity continues to dictate the trading.
The inflation rate has not eased reasonably in the past three years. It hit 18.17 per cent in March before retracement that saw the figure dropping by 0.05 percentage point in April, albeit the disbelief. In the 2022-2024 MTEF/FSP, the government expects inflation to retreat to 13 per cent next year, 11 per cent in 2023 and 10 per cent in 2024.
Inflation has consistently exceeded official projections in the past few years. It is currently 2.93 percentage points above the government’s estimated 15 per cent. Last year, the Budget Office projected an inflation rate of 13.2 per cent while the CBN adjusted its forecast to 14 per cent by the third quarter whereas the figure soared to 15.75 per cent at the close of the year. With the protracted insecurity in different parts of the country and the heightened currency crisis, some economists said the headline inflation would be steeper in the coming months. These concerns raise questions about the level of diligence put into the MTEF/FSP projections.