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Ogbonnaya99
Grabe Ur Joke
~1.9 mins read
A Networkologist's Christmas "It's the night before Christmas," I thought with a frown. I was stuck at the office. The network was down. The routers were hung in the closet. All crashed. Their tables had holes in their data. All trashed. Remote distribution, it seems, just for fun, Had erased DLLs Windows needed to run On 84 desktops way down in accounting. I sat stunned at my desk, my blood pressure mounting. When all of a sudden there arose such a clatter, I saw that a server had something the matter. There was smoke coming out of the main hard disk drive. "No problem," I thought. "I'm set up with RAID5. "But I found out the system I thought was unstoppable Had disk drives that turned out completely unswappable! "No problem," I thought. "I've tape backup to thank. " And then I discovered my backups were blank. The UPS burped, and its lights all went out. I started to scream! I started to shout! But nobody heard as I vented my rage. My gurus were all on vacation those days. And nobody's tech support answered the phone. I was nose deep in trouble, completely alone. When out at reception, I heard a soft knock. As the hands just touched midnight on my desktop clock. "What's your problem? " he asked. "Never mind, friend, I know. I checked out your network five hours ago. I did some proactive analysis, so I knew that this time bomb was going to blow. " Who was this guy? Who did he think he was? He was dressed in red coveralls, white beard, black gloves. His eyes had the twinkle of technical genius. His smile cut down personal distance between us. He spread out his tools, and went straight to his work. "Whoever configured this network's a jerk," He said with a :-) as he quickly rebooted,Uploaded some software, and smoothly rerouted The LAN to a WAN that he quickly supplied With bandwidth at least 20 gigabits wide That went via wireless, I think, LEO,To tech support elves waiting at the North Pole. "Now bridging, now routing, now Ethernet hubs! " He chanted as each piece of hardware he rubbed. "Cheer up, my good friend! Lose that mindset so tragic! Technology often looks just like some magic To people who don't understand what we do. Now a switch, emulation, now middleware glue! Look at the protocols, check one or two,Debug a bit, test a bit, presto! We're through! " My data was back! Every system checked out! Tears of joy wet my face as I wandered about. "How can I thank you? You must be Saint Nick! "He said, "Really, my friend, it's not such a great trick, If you don't give up hope, focus on what you're doing, And read all your issues of NETWORK COMPUTING. " And I heard him exclaim, as his reindeer were coursing, "Merry Christmas to all! And consider outsourcing! "
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Ogbonnaya99
Nigerias Food Inflation Rises By 110.5% In Five Years
~39.7 mins read
A comparison of the Composite food index within the period under review indicated that food inflation rose from 181.8 index points to 382.7 index points.
This means that the price of food items has not just increased but more than doubled in the last five years of the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
Similarly, the all items index also rose by 92.4% during the same period.
Food items that have witnessed significant increases
Abiola has spent about 14 years in journalism. His career has covered some top local print media like TELL Magazine, Broad Street Journal, The Point Newspaper. The Bloomberg MEI alumni has interviewed some of the most influential figures of the IMF, G-20 Summit, Pre-G20 Central Bank Governors and Finance Ministers, Critical Communication World Conference. The multiple award winner is variously trained in business and markets journalism at Lagos Business School, and Pan-Atlantic University. You may contact him via email - [email protected].
HOSPITALITY & TRAVEL
Transport fare for motorcycle “Okada” more than doubled in 2020
Data from the NBS reveals the average fare paid by commuters for a journey by motorcycle more than doubled year on year.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals the average fare paid by commuters for a journey by motorcycle per drop more than doubled year on year (September 2020 vs 2019 respectively).
This was contained in the recently released data on Transport fare for September 2020 in Nigeria. This covers bus journey within the city per drop, bus journey intercity, state route, charge per person, airfare charge for specified routes single journey, journey by motorcycle (Okada) per drop, and waterway passenger transport.
Motorcycle Fares
MACRO-ECONOMIC NEWS
Nigeria’s Macro-economic dashboard for Q3 2020 – Comercio Partners
Nigerian headline inflation rose for the 13th consecutive month to a 30-months high in September 2020.
The Nigeria’s crude oil production for August 2020, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), increased from 1.35 million bpd in July, a 0.6% increase to 1.35 mbpd.
At the beginning of the quarter, OPEC and its allies such as Russia agreed in their meeting to ease record oil supply curbs from August and taper cuts to 7.7 million bpd till December. Since May, OPEC has been cutting output by 9.7 million bpd or 10% of global supply, after the COVID-19 virus was deemed to have destroyed a third of global demand.
However, fears of a second wave of the coronavirus are weighing heavily on the market, and OPEC said that “a second strong wave” could deepen the hit on demand to 11 million bpd this year. Additionally, the international oil benchmark, Brent Futures, surged by 8.4%, supported by an improvement in Chinese factory data, rising energy demands, and hopes for an agreement in the United States on more coronavirus-related economic stimulus – reaching a peak of $45.58 during the quarter before settling at $40.95 by the end of the quarter.
The 2nd Quarter 2020 (Q2 2020) shows that the Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by -6.10% (year-on-year) in real terms, and aggregate GDP stood at N34,023,197.60 million in nominal terms.
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The Q2 2020 growth rate of -6.10% indicates a drop of -8.22% points, and on quarter-on-quarter basis, a fall of -7.97% points when compared to the first quarter of 2020 (1.87%).
Overall, the nominal growth rate was -16.81% points lower than recorded in the second quarter of 2019, and -14.81% points lower than recorded in the first quarter of 2020.
Inflation
Nigerian headline inflation rose for the 13th consecutive month to a 30-months high in September 2020. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation maintained its upward trajectory, as headline inflation just hit 13.71%, from 12.82% in July.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline index was up by 1.34%, 9 bps higher than 1.25% recorded in July. The uptick largely reflected the increase in the food component, which rose to 16.00% in August from 15.48% recorded in the prior month. It is the highest increase in food inflation since November 2019, pressured due to floods, a weaker naira, and clashes between herders and farmers.
The food index which accounts for more than half the inflation basket, is now at its highest level since March 2018 and could be further pressured amidst a shortage of domestic food supply.
Core inflation, a good indicator of the long-term inflation trend as well as future inflation, rose to 10.52% in August from 10.10% in the prior month. We are starting to see the cost reflective power tariff and how continuous adjustment in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) impacts on this component.
Capital importation and Foreign Exchange reserves
Inflow in the I&E FX Window surged this month, as total FX inflows into the Nigerian economy increased by 118% from $428.7 million in the month of August 2020 to $936.2 million in the month of September 2020. This is because the Central Bank finally switched on the tap in the I&E FX Window.
The significant spike in foreign inflows was on the back of the resumed FX intervention by the apex bank after 5 months on the sidelines. The foreign inflow from the apex bank accounted for 46.4% of the total inflow in September 2020, with an inflow of $434.5 million.
The efforts by the Central bank were supported by foreign inflows from other local sources, as domestic participants dominated foreign exchange inflows. The foreign inflow from other local sources advanced by 13% to $411.7 million in September 2020 from $364.2 million in August 2020, accounting for 43.98% of total foreign inflow.
Foreign inflow from FPIs also witnessed a significant boost, signaling a gradual recovery of foreign investment. The foreign inflow from FPIs surged by 300% to $36.8 million in September 2020 from $9.2 million in August 2020.
This accounts for 9.6% of the total foreign inflow, while foreign inflows from other foreign sources bucked the trend, decreasing by 4% to $53.2 million in September 2020 from $55.3 million in August 2020.
The external reserves held steady this month despite the resumed FX sale by the apex bank, as the improvement in crude oil prices provided support to the reserves. The external reserves advanced marginally by 0.2% to $35.74 billion in September 2020 from $35.67 billion in August 2020.
Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)
Scarcity of dollar and depressed oil prices showed the Manufacturing PMI in the month of September at 46.9 index points, which indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the fifth consecutive month, after previously recording expansions for 36 consecutive months. Of the 14 surveyed subsectors, only 4 subsectors reported expansion. The sectors that reported expansion include electrical equipment, transportation equipment, cement, and nonmetallic mineral products.
The PMI for the Non-manufacturing sector stood at 41.9 points in September 2020, indicating a contraction for the sixth consecutive month. Of the 17 surveyed subsectors, 3 sectors reported growth in the following order: water supply; sewage & waste management; arts, entertainment & recreation; and professional, scientific & technical services, while the remaining 14 subsectors reported declines.
The effects of the economic lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic have obviously continued to weigh down on activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing space. Adding to these is the inadequacy of economic stimuli, as seen in some economies, which led to speedy recovery in the economic activities of those climes.
Financial market
– Fixed income market
Activities in the fixed income market picked up in September after a relatively quiet trend last month. The bullish momentum was driven by the unexpected rate cuts at the September 2020 MPC meeting, coupled with the reduced sale at September 2020 bond auction.
Monthly yields for the benchmark securities monitored declined across all maturities on a month-on-month basis except for the 10-year maturity, which advanced by 18 bps MoM. Average yields on the sovereign bonds with 3-year, 5-year, and 20-year maturities declined by 88 bps, 107 bps, and 16 bps respectively.
All eyes were on the MPC meeting which held on 22nd September 2020, as market participants awaited the monetary authority’s response to the rising inflation rate and further clarity on the multiple FX circular released by the CBN. The MPC slashed its monetary policy rate by 100 bps to 11.5% during its September 2020 meeting, bringing the benchmark rate to the lowest since 2016. The asymmetric corridor around the MPR was also reviewed to +100/-700bps from +200/- 500bps.
The September Bond auction was held shortly after the MPC meeting, where the DMO offered ₦145 billion across all maturity. The DMO decided to follow the footstep of the CBN and sold ₦103.81 billion out of the ₦145 billion offered; thus, selling just ₦6.81 billion and ₦4.60 billion on the 25-year and 30-year bond, compared to the ₦40 billion offered on both maturities respectively.
The stop rate for the 6-year, 15-year, 25-year, and 30-year bonds printed at 6%, 8.52%, 8.9%, and 8.94% respectively at the auction on Wednesday, 23rd September 2020, as against 6.70%, 9.35%, 9.75% & 9.90% respectively at the previous auction. Consequently, towards the end of the month, the bullish trend strengthened further as the unmet bid at the auction filtered into the secondary market.
– Foreign Exchange market
In Q3 2020, the Naira appreciated in 2 months out of 3 at the I&E FX Window, with the average exchange rate of the currency to a unit of the Dollar settling at ₦386.01 in September. Total monthly turnover for Q3 2020 at $3.8 billion, surpassed that of Q2 by 45%. In September, the apex bank resumed intervention at the I&E window, selling a total of $290 million spot and $240 million forwards which eased the pressure on the Naira.
In addition to the relief provided by the resumed intervention of the apex bank on the I&E FX Window during the quarter, the apex bank has been clamping down on foreign exchange abuses. According to the bank, this is responsible for the disparity in the rate of the naira on the I&E FX Window and the parallel market. The apex bank recently rolled out a circular that significantly restricted FX transfers and usage in domiciliary accounts with banks. These new measures coupled with the resumed intervention on the I&E FX Window pushed the Naira up during the quarter on both the I&E FX Window and the parallel market.
Equities market
The third quarter Q3 2020 defied all expectations and printed positive returns with every month in Q3 posting monthly gains. The influx of half year results coupled with tempting dividend payouts in August and September stirred up some actions in the local bourse.
The toast of the quarter was surprisingly the decision of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) towards the end of the quarter, which triggered participation from the typically quiet local institutions (PFAs) in the equity space. The MPC held its meeting on September 21 and 22, cutting the MPR to 11.50%, an indication that the low yield environment plaguing the market is here to stay.
With inflation at 13.22%, local investors with liquidity were not comfortable re-investing at yields as low as 1% in the fixed income space. These Domestic institutional investors responded with decent demand for MTNN, WAPCO, and tier-1 lenders, bolstering the market to hit a 7-month high as foreign-sell pressure remained muted. Since the MPR cut, there has been more than a 100% jump in average daily volume and value traded, with approximately 480 million units and ₦5.7 billion being the new daily average, from 200 million units and ₦2 billion respectively.
Foreign investors continue to focus on fungible stocks – NEWGOLD, AIRTELAF, and SEPLAT – which has been the strategy since it became difficult for them to repatriate funds out of Nigeria. The CBN decided to intervene in the I&E window for the first time in September – since March, offering a combination of forwards and spots in cumulative trade of about $130 million weekly. However, this remains to be favorable for foreign portfolio investors who have cash equity mandates.
For the third quarter, the Industrial Index emerged the strongest gainer, up by 8.14%. It was followed by the Banking index (10.08%), and the Consumer Index (2.74%), while the Oil and Gas index was down by (-0.68%).
The quarter ended on a positive note as the NSE ASI gained 9.61% quarter on quarter while the month of September was up 5.96%. Year – to date negative return was nearly wiped out at -0.02%.
Expectations for the coming months in the year 2020
With no word on when talks on a new stimulus package might resume and no movement on benefits for tens of millions who lost their jobs to the US crisis, crude oil demands may remain significantly depressed for an extended period of time. Additionally, as more countries go back on lockdown and the looming resurgence of the virus inducing fear, upward price pressure on crude may be subdued.
The main source of inflationary pressure has been passed through from the recent naira depreciation, compounded by FX restrictions and under-supply. This in turn has pushed transactions into the parallel market, where the exchange rate is significantly weaker. The President’s order to ban access to foreign currency for food and fertilizer imports could also stoke inflation, as businesses would look to the parallel market for dollars.
The government’s move to end fuel subsidies and raise electricity tariffs will add to consumer’s costs.
We believe that this trend could prove persistent with the CBN’s recent policy aimed at boosting credit growth and FX availability still constrained. Nigeria’s inflation has continuously stayed above the 6% to 9% band set by the CBN, with no clear signs of abating, as the borders remain closed.
What Commercio Partners’ experts expect …
The contraction in both the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing sectors can be attributed to the scarcity of dollars, falling oil prices, as well as limited fiscal support that continues to put pressure on the economy.
The Nigerian inflation rate rose to 13.71% (year-on-year) in September 2020 indicating 0.49% point higher than 13.22% recorded in August 2020. This was contained in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) repby the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
According to the report, Nigeria has endured persistent increase in inflationary rate, growing from 12.13% in January to 13.71% in September, which is highest recorded in 30 months.
On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.48% in September 2020. This is 0.14% rate higher than the rate recorded in August 2020 (1.34%). Also, the urban inflation rate increased by 14.31% (year-on-year) in review period from 13.83% recorded in August 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 13.14% in September 2020 from 12.65% in August 2020.
Food inflation
A closely watched component of the inflation index, rose by 16.66% in September 2020, 0.66% increased compared to 16% recorded in the previous month, while on a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index rose by 1.88% compared to 1.67% recorded in August 2020.
Meanwhile, the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and Cereals, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Meat, Fish, Fruits and Oils and fats.
Core inflation: The Core inflation also known as “All items less farm produce”, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 10.58% September 2020, up by 0.06% when compared with 10.52% recorded in August 2020.
The highest increases were recorded in prices of Passenger transport by air, Medical services, Hospital services, Pharmaceutical products, Passenger transport by road, Motor cars, Vehicle spare parts, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Repair of furniture and Paramedical services.
Worst hit States
Northern states in Nigeria top the list of States that recorded highest inflation in the month of September, with Bauchi State leading the list at 17.85%, closely followed by Zamfara at 17.42% and Kogi State at 16.66%. Others on the list are Yobe (15.71%) and Plateau (15.61%).
On the flip side, Kwara State recorded the least inflation rate at 10.53%, followed by Abuja at 10.59%, Lagos (11.19%), Ondo and Cross River State at 11.76% and 11.81% respectively.
What this means
Inflations rate at 13.71% and food inflation at 16.66% indicates that the purchasing power of consumers is consistently and rapidly declining on monthly basis, despite income of most Nigerians pegged at a fixed level while others earning lower income.
Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website
More details shortly……
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