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Britain is sleepwalking into a mental health crisis as the government struggles to deal with the monumental effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Health experts and charities have told the Observer the coming winter will devastate the mental wellbeing of the nation as lockdown uncertainty, fear, isolation and loneliness are exacerbated by the colder and darker months ahead.

In England, the Centre for Mental Health has predicted that up to 10 million people – almost a fifth of the population – will need mental health support as a direct consequence of Covid-19, with 1.5 million of those expected to be children and young people under 18. The effect on patients with pre-existing mental health problems and on those from underprivileged backgrounds is even greater, painting a bleak picture for those already suffering.

Professor Roshan das Nair, a clinical psychologist from the Institute of Mental Health, is “deeply concerned” about the country being able to cope with the looming crisis.

“The sheer numbers of people developing problems – and some may not be fully-fledged or reach the threshold for diagnosis – will escalate,” he said. “What this means for the healthcare service, when at the best of times we have long waiting lists, is a real concern. How are we going to cope with the increased demand in the next few months?”

Primary school-age children are considered especially vulnerable to anxiety and emotional and behavioural issues. Polly Waite, co-author of a University of Oxford study into the health of children and adolescents during the pandemic, revealed that the number of children who would meet the threshold for clinical diagnosis had increased by 35% during the pandemic.

“That isn’t the only alarming figure,” said Waite. “We know that children from lower-income families are two-and-a-half times more likely to suffer poor mental health and this inequality persisted throughout lockdown. There is a domino effect: elevated family stress in the coming months around finances, jobs, social restrictions, uncertainty – all of that poses a huge risk to the emotional and mental safety of kids as well as their anxieties around peer relationships in schools, exams and learning.”

Speaking to the Observer, the shadow health minister Rosena Allin-Khanaccused the government of being “asleep at the wheel” and playing “political football” with what was unequivocally a cross-party issue.

“My freedom of information request revealed that the secretary of state did not meet with a single mental-health organisation within the first three months [of the pandemic]. There is no single group that’s unaffected – mental ill health affects people regardless of class, gender, ethnicity or socioeconomic background.”