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Major U.S. equities indexes lost ground after the latest Consumer Price Index report showed greater-than-expected price increases in September, driven by an uptick in grocery prices.
In addition to weighing on household budgets, the hot inflation data could constrain the Federal Reserve as policymakers deliberate over further interest-rate cuts.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% on Thursday, while the Dow was down 0.1%. Both indexes receded from record closes posted in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also retreated, though it fared slightly better, closing with a minimal daily loss of less than 0.1%.
Shares of solar panel producer First Solar (FSLR) plunged 9.3%, the most of any S&P 500 constituent, after Jefferies reduced its price target on the stock to $266 from $271. Research analysts warned of potential delays that could restrain First Solar's volumes in the current quarter and those to come. Other solar industry stocks also moved lower: Shares of solar technology firm Enphase Energy (ENPH) slipped 5.8%.
Semiconductor manufacturer Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) unveiled new artificial intelligence (AI) chips at its "Advancing AI 2024" event in San Francisco on Thursday. Its shares dropped 4%, with some analysts suggesting that its presentation may not have been sufficient to convince investors that its new products will be able to compete with AI chips from Nvidia (NVDA).
Shares of Generac Holdings (GNRC), which provides home generators and other power solutions, fell 3.5% as Hurricane Milton moved through Florida. Thursday's downturn reversed a portion of the gains posted by the stock ahead of the storm.
The day's strongest performance in the S&P 500 belonged to shares of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), which climbed 5.6% after RBC Capital included the stock on its list of top picks in the software space. Analysts believe the company is successfully moving past an incident in July when a faulty software update caused widespread IT outages around the world.
Shares of fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. (MOS) gained 4.4%. Based in Tampa, Fla., Mosaic faced uncertainties about the potential impact of Hurricane Milton on its operations. The company said Thursday that it will begin to assess the impact of the storm as soon as conditions allow.
Shares of Micron Technology (MU) shares added 3.9%. Although AMD's AI event may have failed to generate much investor enthusiasm, its new chips included more memory than previous products, underlining the importance of high-bandwidth memory for AI processes. Micron, which manufactures memory chips, is a partner of AMD.
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OAP Toolz has asked a question about only fans and glorifying God after spending thousands of Naira on fuelling cars
She said this was what she asked herself many times this morning after they filled the cars in the house, because even breathing air is expensive now.
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Shares of cybersecurity provider CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) added more than 5% on Thursday, notching the S&P 500's top performance of the day, after RBC Capital named the company one of its top investment ideas in North American software for 2025.
CrowdStrike drew scrutiny in mid-July when the firm's defective software update caused widespread technology outages across the world. Fallout from that incident sent CrowdStrike shares tumbling, and it's still below the levels seen after those events—but the stock has been on a path of recovery since printing a low in early August.
According to analysts at RBC, the negative headlines about the midsummer software update and subsequent technological interruptions generated "short-term noise" surrounding CrowdStrike stock, but the company appears poised to emerge from the situation in a strong position.
RBC believes CrowdStrike could be on track to achieve $10 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR). The company's management team recently reiterated its goal to achieve this ambitious milestone by fiscal 2031. CrowdStrike's ARR for fiscal 2024 came in at over $3.4 billion.
CrowdStrike continues to face issues stemming from the July incident. When Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported lower-than-expected sales and profits in its quarterly report released Thursday, the carrier cited the negative impact of the CrowdStrike outage, which resulted in the cancellation of thousands of flights.
According to Delta, the incident caused a $380 million hit to revenue in the quarter. The airline's CEO said Delta continues to seek compensation from CrowdStrike and Microsoft (MSFT) related to the outages.
Following Thursday's gains, CrowdStrike shares are trading around 23% higher year-to-date but remain around 21% below the all-time highs seen this summer before the incident.
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A concerned Nigerian man has asked What is the Church doing about the mass s¥ffering of Nigerians?
He meant what the church has been doing in speaking out and condemning the bad that the government has being doing.
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Several pieces of economic data Thursday complicated the Federal Reserve's plans to gradually lower interest rates in the coming months and bring the economy in for a "soft landing."
Reports on consumer prices and jobless claims delivered some mixed news on how the Fed is doing to stave off inflation and unemployment. The Consumer Price Index fell to its lowest year-over-year rate since 2021 but ran higher than forecasters expected in September. Not only that, but the 12-month rate of "core" inflation, which leaves out volatile prices for food and energy, rose for the first time since March 2023 to 3.3%, still above the Fed's goal for a 2% annual rate.Meanwhile, the Department of Labor said 258,000 people filed for unemployment for the first time last week, up from 225,000 the week prior. This was well over the 230,000 jobless claims forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by andStubborn inflation and rising joblessness are the exact opposite of what the Fed wants as it attempts to bring the economy down from the feverish outburst of inflation that followed the pandemic in 2021.
In September, the Fed began trimming its benchmark interest rate, which influences borrowing costs on everything from credit cards to mortgages. At that time, officials said they expected to make further cuts in the coming months. Central bankers projected they'd make a 25 basis-point (bps) cut at each of the two remaining meetings.
But will Fed officials rethink their rate-cut plans with inflation running hotter than expected? Several economists think not.
“The larger-than-anticipated gain in the September consumer price index doesn’t signal a reacceleration in inflation, nor will it deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates by 25 bps at its November meeting," Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. "The Fed needs to continue to normalize interest rates to keep the economy on the path toward a soft landing."
Financial markets agreed. Traders were pricing in an 86.3% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
Before the September meeting, the Fed had held rates high, pushing up borrowing costs to subdue inflation. However, with inflation subsiding closer to the Fed's goal of a 2% annual rate, the Fed is lowering borrowing costs to bolster the economy and prevent a sharp increase in unemployment.
Historically, when the Fed has hiked interest rates to subdue inflation, the economy has crashed afterward and gone into recession with widespread job losses. Fed officials have voiced hopes that this time will be different.
Both reports released Thursday contained details that suggested the economy could still be on the path to a soft landing. For one thing, the jump in unemployment claims likely had more to do with temporary disruptions from Hurricane Helene and strikes like those at Boeing and less to do with broader trends in the job market, economists said.The inflation report had a silver lining, too. Shelter costs only rose 4.9% over the year, the slowest increase since March 2022, reversing a sharp uptick in August. Housing has been a major factor preventing inflation from falling all the way back down to the Fed's 2% milestone."The report shows some stickiness on inflation, but we are not yet worried about reacceleration risks," Stephen Juneau, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities, wrote in a commentary.
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Big banks will kick off earnings season tomorrow with results that could set the tone for what some analysts are expecting to be a lackluster round of reports. But some experts say that might not be such a bad thing for investors.
The consensus on Wall Street is that the S&P 500 as a whole will report growth slowed to 4% from 11% in the prior quarter, according to analysts at Bank of America. That would be the most pronounced deceleration in two and a half years.
Analysts lowered their expectations throughout the quarter as economic data pointed to a softening labor market, a threat to consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy. From the start of the quarter to its end, analysts lowered their S&P 500 aggregate earnings estimate by nearly 4%. While it's normal for Wall Street to scale back earnings estimates, a 4% reduction is above the 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year averages. Tech is the only sector for which Wall Street has raised its expectations.
With the bar lowered, the stage could be set for stocks to pop on better-than-expected results.
“As long as companies have managed through macro headwinds and see early signs of improvement from lower rates, stocks should get rewarded,” wrote BofA analysts. They estimate that Wall Street has overestimated the impact disappointing macroeconomic data will have on corporate earnings, and expect S&P 500 earnings to top estimates by about 2 percentage points.
Thus far, S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates at an above-average rate, with more than three-quarters topping earnings per share estimates. And they're beating estimates by a wider margin than the previous quarter (3.5% vs. 1.7%). Though, with only 21 companies having reported at the time of BofA's note, that fact should be taken with a healthy grain of salt.
Investors will likely place as much if not more importance on a company’s outlook than its past results, and there’s reason to expect more optimism now that the Federal Reserve has begun easing policy.
Earnings in rate-sensitive industries like manufacturing and housing should recover in the coming quarters if rates continue to decline, says BofA. That recovery could have an outsized impact on the S&P 500’s earnings. BofA estimates goods-focused businesses account for half of the index’s profits but only 20% of U.S. GDP.
The outlook could also be brightened by forecasts of more robust capital expenditures (CapEx).
Artificial intelligence capex could also flow through to corporate earnings. Tech giants Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG; GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) are expected to spend more than $200 billion on infrastructure this year, with much of that spending dedicated to AI. That spending was a thorn in these companies' sides last quarter when investors balked at AI's hefty price tag. CapEx jitters could weigh on mega-cap tech stocks again this round, but it could also boost the revenue of relevant companies across the technology, utilities, and industrial sectors.
The remainder of the S&P 500 is on track to decrease its CapEx by 1% this year. Companies have been discouraged from making big investments by both elevated borrowing costs and the uncertainty surrounding November's presidential election. BofA notes that, historically, investment activity picks up significantly after elections when executives have a clearer picture of the outlook on taxes, trade, and regulations. That CapEx boost could be exacerbated this year by falling interest rates.
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