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Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose Tuesday as market participants anxiously awaited what some analysts have called the "most important tech earnings in years."
Nvidia, the artificial intelligence chipmaker at the heart of the AI revolution, is scheduled to report fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings after markets close on Wednesday. It will be the third earnings report from Nvidia this calendar year and investors are waiting to see if it will be the third time its stock soars to new heights on blowout results.
Shares jumped more than 9% on May 23, the day after the chipmaker reported record quarterly revenue and profit, and announced a 10-for-1 stock split. They went on to rise more than 27% in the following two weeks.
The company’s fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter results were even more explosive. Shares jumped 16% in one day, adding a record $272 billion to the company’s market cap. By the end of the week, Nvidia’s market value had increased by more than $300 billion, and within two weeks its shares had risen more than 30%.
But stellar results aren’t always enough for Wall Street. Nvidia shares fell in late November 2023 when concerns about restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductors to China overshadowed quarterly revenue that exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by nearly $2 billion.
The stock, which seemed unstoppable for much of the last two years, has stumbled in recent months. Shares fell more than 25% through July and early August as the anticipation of lower interest rates prompted a broad rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks into rate-sensitive small caps and then sparked the unwinding of the popular yen carry trade.
Concern about excessive spending on AI infrastructure also weighed on tech stocks in this most recent earnings cycle. Nvidia's stock, despite its position as a beneficiary of all that spending, has felt some of the pain of Wall Street's frayed AI optimism.
The company has also recently had to contend with reports that its next-generation Blackwell chip may be delayed by design flaws. The news sent shares plummeting earlier this month, but investors bought the dip and the stock has since recovered.
Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on Sunday said they believe Wall Street overreacted to Blackwell delays. They did not expect the delays to change the system's rollout timeline, nor did they expect it to have a material impact on quarterly results.
With demand for the Blackwell system strong and older offerings filling in supply gaps, executives, the analysts said, may “not even acknowledge tactical setbacks.”
The greatest risk to Nvidia stock, in their opinion, is climbing investor expectations. Results from hyperscalers and AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) point to massive data center spending, leading some to raise their estimates for sales throughout the rest of the year.
Morgan Stanley believes that, to satisfy investors, Nvidia will have to announce revenue guidance for the fiscal third quarter that's about $2 billion higher than the consensus view among analysts. "(A)ssuming that all is well with new products our sense is that the stock needs guidance in the $33-34 (billion) range to be unchanged."
A figure in that range would imply a significant acceleration of quarter-to-quarter sales growth.
Analysts expect Nvidia will report fiscal second-quarter revenue of $28.84 billion, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, which would be about 11% higher than the first quarter. If Nvidia meets those expectations, it would have to grow revenue 18% over the quarter to hit the high end of the range.
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Shares of Cava (CAVA) fell over 5% Tuesday after records showed a major shareholder and several executives sold shares.
Cava CEO Brett Schulman sold 201,504 shares worth $24.9 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. CFO Tricia Toliver and a trust associated with board member David Bosserman each shed 5,000 shares.
Luxembourg-based Artal International S.C.A., Cava’s largest investor, also sold 6 million shares valued at $732 million. It continues to hold about 114 million shares.
The moves came after Cava Group shares surged on the company's better-than-expected second-quarter results. Schulman said at the time that gains were boosted by demand for the chain’s new grilled steak dish.
Shares of Cava Group closed at an all-time high Monday before turning lower Tuesday. Shares were down nearly 6% at $118.80 in intraday trading Tuesday, though even with Tuesday's losses, they were up over 175% from the start of the year.
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A man has revealed the easiest way to get women.
As funny as it sounds the easiest way to get women is by having a girlfriend. It’s why married men always have squad depth.
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Apple (AAPL) announced a CFO change on Monday, just ahead of an iPhone 16 launch that could spur a new era of growth for the company. While the C-suite change could feed some investors' worries, many analysts expect a "seamless" transition.
Luca Maestri will step down as CFO at the end of the year with Kevan Parekh, Apple’s vice president of financial planning and analysis, set to take over the role.
Maestri has been Apple's CFO for over a decade. During this time the company's revenue more than doubled and services segment revenue grew more than five times, Apple said in its announcement. He will continue to lead the Corporate Services teams, reporting to CEO Tim Cook.
As CFO, Maestri presided over some big changes to how the tech giant discloses financial information. During Apple's fourth-quarter earnings call in 2018, Maestri announced changes to the way the company reported financials for its services business but more importantly that it was doing away with disclosing how many iPhones and iPads it sold every quarter going forward.
"The number of units sold in any 90-day period is not necessarily representative of the underlying strength of our business," Maestri said on that call, adding, "furthermore a unit of sale is less relevant for us today than it was in the past given the breadth of our portfolio and the wider sales price dispersion within any given product line."
The company continues to report revenue figures from sales of major device categories.
Maestri said he has "enormous confidence" in his successor. Parekh has been with Apple for 11 years after holding senior leadership roles at Thomson Reuters (TRI) and General Motors (GM).
Citi analysts said Maestri's departure from the CFO role is "a bit negative" for Apple given the company's margin expansion during his tenure. Wedbush and Bank of America analysts said they expect a smooth CFO transition with minimal impact on investors or the company.
Melius Research analysts said the change represents an example of "good succession planning" as they expect the new CEO to maintain the pillars of the investment thesis.
Apple shares were up about 0.5% in recent trading Tuesday. The stock has gained roughly 20% this year.
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Popular singer Solidstar has celebrated his partner for being loyal to him for over 10 years despite causing her p+in, t£ars, and heartbreak.
He said for over ten years all she got from me was pains, t£ars and heart breaks. But she never gave up on him.
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Market participants breathed a sigh of relief when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled during a speech on Friday that interest rate cuts are coming. The question now is: Will the central bank be as aggressive in its easing as investors expect?
Markets have been anticipating the Fed’s pivot for most of this year, and have tended to overestimate how quickly the central bank would cut rates. At the start of the year, markets were pricing in the likelihood that the Fed would trim as much as one-and-a-half percentage points from its benchmark fed funds rate by the end of 2024, with cuts starting in March. Several months later, the influential rate remains exactly where it's been for over a year, at its highest level since 2001.
In his eagerly anticipated remarks Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Powell said the "time has come for policy to adjust" as inflation has eased and the labor market has cooled, though he stopped short of promising that a rate cut would be made at the Fed's next policy meeting in September. “The direction of the travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” he said.
On Wall Street, however, the speech was taken as effectively a guarantee that rates will be lowered next month.
“Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech confirmed that the Fed is now at the point of paring,” wrote Bank of Montreal (BMO) analysts on Friday. “Indeed, we judge we’re also now at the point where the data no longer have to the Fed to cut policy rates.”
Markets are currently pricing in about a 75% chance that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by at least a full percentage point from its current range of 5.25%-5.50% by the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data. If the Fed follows that script, it would need to cut the rate by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, at one of its three remaining monetary policy meetings in 2024.
Powell’s speech shored up “expectations for an already priced in 25-bps rate cut in September while his cautious tone about the health of the labor market left the prospects of 50 bps on the table,” wrote market analysts Tom Essaye and Tyler Richey in a report Monday.
BMO analysts, meanwhile, don’t expect the data to justify larger cuts. “Signs of an economic slowdown are becoming more visible now, but fears that the Fed needs to make bigger-than-usual 50 basis point cuts to avoid a recession are also not strongly supported by the data,” Chief U.S. Economist Scott Anderson wrote on Friday.
Traders are holding out hope, though. As of early Tuesday afternoon, fed fund futures trading data implied a 36% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September, up from less than a 30% likelihood priced in a week ago.
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