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It turns out employers weren’t hiring last year at quite the breakneck pace that official government statistics originally reported.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics downwardly revised the number of jobs added in the 12 months through March 2024, by 818,000, meaning that 0.5% fewer jobs were added than initial reports indicated.
The drop was in line with expectations of forecasters, who had predicted a downward revision of anywhere from 600,000 to 1 million jobs, according to economists at Goldman Sachs. Should the preliminary estimate (itself subject to further revisions) hold, it would be the largest downward revision since 2009 and would mean that the economy added an average of 178,000 jobs per month instead of 246,000.
While the revision was expected—the bureau revises its numbers every year based on data it receives from state unemployment tax records, usually downshifting what they initially reported—it could shift how policymakers at the Federal Reserve view the job market. The Fed has said it is increasingly focusing on the labor market as it weighs possible interest-rate cuts.
While the revised figure is “still a solid number,” it “raises the risk that the numbers we're seeing now are in actuality lower,” Ernie Tedeschi, former chief economist at the White House, posted on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
The job market has been one of the bright spots in an economy battered by higher-than-normal inflation and high interest rates from the Fed. Employers have continued hiring, keeping unemployment low and avoiding a recession. That’s despite the fact that borrowing costs on all kinds of loans have been pushed up by the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate to its highest since 2001 to combat inflation.
The resilient job market has fueled hopes that inflation could simmer down without the wave of mass layoffs and recessions that have usually followed the central bank’s rate-hike campaigns historically.Several economists said the large downward revision to hiring statistics could dim those hopes, but it doesn’t signal the economy is in a recession just yet. The revision comes at a time when the Fed is preparing to lower interest rates, shifting its focus from taming inflation to trying to prevent a spike in unemployment.“This doesn’t challenge the idea we’re still in an expansion, but it does signal we should expect monthly job growth to be more muted and put extra pressure on the Fed to cut rates,” Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary.
The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by at least a quarter point when its policy committee next meets in September. After the revision, financial markets raised their bets for the Fed to cut rates more steeply.
As of Wednesday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 34.5% chance the Fed would cut its rate by half a percentage point from its current range of 5.25%-5.50%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data. Those chances are up from a 29% chance the previous day.
More aggressive rate cuts from the Fed would put more downward pressure on interest rates for all kinds of loans, including mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.
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Divine Johnson-Suleman Inspires Teens at Annual International Conference 2024
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Held in a vibrant atmosphere, the conference saw Divine deliver a powerful message that resonated deeply with the young and new breed Jesus GenZ audience.
Her words, filled with faith and wisdom, ignited a renewed sense of purpose, consciousness and spirituality among the attendees. Divine's presence and influence at the event left a lasting impact, affirming her role as a guiding light for the next generation. God Bless The Johnson-Suleman Family
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Arch Resources (ARCH) and Consol Energy (CEIX) are merging in an all-stock deal, the two coal miners said Wednesday.
The companies, who have a combined market cap of about $5.2 billion, said the all-stock merger of equals will create a coal producer called Core Natural Resources that will have 11 mines and about 25 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of export capacity.
Core Natural Resources will also have stakes in a pair of East Coast terminals and strategic access to ports on the West Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.
The deal, which is expected to close in early 2025, is seen generating between $110 million and $140 million in annual cost and operational synergies, the firms said.
"Our assets are highly complementary, resulting in increased diversification across coal types, end uses, and geographies," Consol Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jimmy Brock said.
Shares of Consol gained 3.8% to $98.35 as of 12:45 p.m. ET Wednesday, while those of Arch rose 1.8% to $129.06. They are down more than 2% and 22% year-to-date, respectively.
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The United Nations Children Fund’s (UNICEF) says the nutrition supplements meant for malnourished children in some communities in Sokoto State are being st%len and sold in the market.
UNICEF’s Chief of Field Office in charge of Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara states, Mr Micheal Juma, disclosed this during the quarterly policymakers’ meeting on Wednesday, August 21, in Sokoto.
Juma noted that the nutrition supplements were provided by donors and distributed to healthcare centers in different communities aimed at enhancing the lives of malnourished children.
According to PMNews, he lamented that some bad elements in the system connived with traders and engaged in selling the supplements to unintended persons.
He stressed that the supplement were openly sold in markets while on investigation at the designated stores, UNICEF discovered that personnel stocked cartons of supplements with stones and other objects to cover their nefarious acts.
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Demand for home loans declined for the first time in three weeks despite mortgage rates dropping to the lowest levels in more than a year.
According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the Market Composite Index, a gauge of the volume of home loan applications, dropped by 10.1% for the week ending Aug. 16.
While the rates on 30-year, fixed mortgages declined again this week to 6.5%, the lowest rate since May 2023, it wasn’t enough to increase homebuyer turnout.
“Both mortgage rates and mortgage applications have now stabilized after a few weeks of financial market volatility, which led to a quick drop in mortgage rates,” Kan said.
In fact, applications for home purchases were at their lowest levels since February, said Joel Kan, MBA vice president and deputy chief economist.
"Home sales have slowed despite rising inventory levels,” Kan said. “Even with lower mortgage rates, potential buyers might be more selective now that there are more options.”
Refinancing applications declined from the prior week but were still 23% higher than levels from a month ago. As mortgage rates have fallen nearly half a percentage point over the past three weeks, many homeowners have jumped on the chance to refinance, sending mortgage demand soaring.
Mortgage rates could also be pushed lower if the Federal Reserve takes action on interest rates at its September meeting, where it’s expected to begin lowering borrowing costs for the first time in four years. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate can influence borrowing costs across the economy, including rates on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards.
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The Sarkin Kudun Gatawa in Gatawa District of Sokoto State, Alhaji Muhammad Bawa, has reportedly been k+lled by bandits after weeks in captivity.
The Emir and his son were kidn@pped in July at the Kwanar Maharba area while travelling from Sokoto to his home town, Sabon Birni, the headquarters of Sabon Birni local government of Sokoto State.
The abductors few days after the incident requested the sum of N1 billion as ransom for the release of the victims.
A video later surfaced online showing the Emir pleading for his life. Speaking in Hausa language, he appealed to the Sokoto State Government, Sokoto Sultanate Council, his relatives and friends to help pay ransom for his freedom before the deadline set by his captors.
Alhaji Bawa said that the bandits had issued a deadline for the payment of ransom and failure of which he would be will k+lled.
The traditional ruler, seen in the video with his blood-stained clothes as well as chained hands and legs said, “I am seeking the help of the government. I am their servant, and I have served them for 74 years, including 45 years in government service.
I have always been in the service of the government, and it is the government’s responsibility to help me.”
Also in the video, one of the g¥nmen can be heard speaking in Hausa dictating to the victims what to say.
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