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Both major presidential candidates have received applause from crowds of supporters when discussing their economic policies—but if the audience were composed of economists, they might have gotten a frostier reception.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and her Republican opponent, former president Donald Trump, have made campaign promises that have drawn criticism from economists all across the ideological spectrum. They’ve also made a few that have gotten more positive reviews.
Here are some of the more polarizing ideas they’ve put forth:
Possibly the most widely criticized idea of the electoral campaign so far is Trump’s proposal to raise tariffs on imports. He has proposed imposing tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports and across-the-board tariffs of 10%.A survey of professional economists by the National Association for Business Economics in August showed that those policies were deeply unpopular with experts. When asked to pick three of eight potential changes to U.S. trade policy, only 2% backed 60% tariffs on China, and 3% backed a broad 10% tariff.
Experts say merchants would likely pass on any increased tariffs to consumers. An analysis by economists at the Peterson Institute for International think tank found enacting Trump’s plan would cost a typical middle-income family $1,700 a year in higher prices.
An analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs found if Trump enacted a softer version of this policy, maintaining the across-the-board tariffs and raising tariffs on China by 20 percentage points, prices in the U.S. would rise 1%, and economic growth would slow down. In response to higher prices, the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher, meaning U.S. individuals and businesses would pay higher interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and other forms of credit.
Even Trump’s ideological allies have criticized the idea of higher tariffs. Economist Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank, warned raising tariffs could reignite the kind of trade wars that contributed to the Great Depression.
“That is bound to invite retaliation from our trade partners that could lead us down the economically destructive road to the beggar-thy-neighbor policies of the 1930s,” he wrote in a blog post this week.
Economist Carl Schramm, a professor at Syracuse who otherwise praised Trump’s economic agenda, said the tariff proposal was a weak point.
Last week, as part of a series of policies aimed at lowering everyday costs for households, Harris proposed a federal ban on price gouging by food companies, though did not provide details about what exactly that policy would consist of. And last month, the Biden-Harris administration proposed a law that would take federal tax breaks away from landlords if they raised prices more than 5% a year. Harris has not said whether she would pursue this policy as president.
To some economists, those ideas echoed the price controls instituted by Richard Nixon in the early 1970s, which backfired spectacularly. (It’s also possible that Harris’s anti-price-gouging policy would be far less extensive than that. The, citing people familiar with Harris’s thinking, said the ban would be modeled after numerous existing state laws that limit how much businesses can raise prices during disasters and emergencies.)Schramm, a critic of Harris’s overall approach, said price controls were her worst idea.“The real issue with price controls is who you drive out in the market,” he said. “If you put price controls on housing, no investor is going to build houses to rent.”Schram was more bullish on one of Harris’s other proposals to cut housing costs—encouraging homebuilding by reducing regulatory red tape.
Both campaigns have proposed expanding the child tax credit—Harris would raise it to up to $3,600 per child and $6,000 for newborns, and the Trump campaign favors a credit of $5,000 per child from its current level of $2,000 per year. When President Joe Biden temporarily expanded the credit in 2021, researchers credited it with cutting child poverty significantly. Some economists say bringing the expanded credit back would help children and the economy overall. In addition to reducing hunger and homelessness and boosting school performance, it would have long-term benefits, Mary Eschelbach Hansen, a professor of economics at American University, said in a blog post earlier this month.
“Healthier, better-educated children are more likely to work when they are adults,” she wrote. “They’ll be more productive, so they're likely to earn more when they're adults … From the point of view of an economist, more productive workers help sustain strong economic growth. They grow the economy.”
On the downside, researchers at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation think tank warned instituting the credits and other Harris spending proposals without cutting federal spending elsewhere or raising taxes to pay for them could stoke inflation and deepen the national debt.
Both Trump and Harris have proposed ending taxes on tips. While giving a tax break to wait staff and other low-paid workers who rely on gratuity may be intended to help the working class, some economists say it would have some unwanted consequences.
Ending taxes on tips is “a poorly targeted proposal,” Alex Muresianu, a senior research fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, wrote in an analysis last month. For one thing, it would reach only 2.5% of the workforce and 5% of the quarter of workers who are the lowest paid, according to researchers at the Yale Budget Lab.
Secondly, if you’re baffled by who you should tip and who you shouldn’t amid the rise of tipping culture, just wait until your lawyer or accountant expects one. Ending taxes on tips would only encourage more professions to move compensation away from wages and toward tips, Muresianu wrote.However, economists are rarely unanimous, and the tip issue is no exception: Schramm said ending tips taxation was a good idea, even if only for its symbolism.
Trump has repeatedly promised to round up and deport illegal immigrants.
Regardless of any humanitarian considerations, economists are skeptical that expelling immigrants would help the economy. In a question on the NABE survey asking economists to select any number of seven different immigration policies they supported, only 29% said it was a good idea to increase deportations.John Horn, an economist at Washington University, is among those who say such a roundup would damage the economy.“If you take millions of workers out of the economy, many industries, including food production and manufacturing assembly services, will suffer,” he said in a blog post earlier this month. “If you don’t have labor, prices go up, and the economy slows down. I’m not saying we should just let anyone in—we need to address immigration—but if you don’t have labor, prices go up and the economy slows down. That’s basic economics.”
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Investopedia
5 hrs
9
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Ross Stores (ROST) shares rose Friday, a day after the discount clothing retailer raised its full-year profit outlook but acknowledged a challenging consumer spending environment.
The company now expects fiscal 2024 earnings per share (EPS) between $6 and $6.13, up from its prior range of $5.79 to $5.98.
In its second quarter, Ross reported $5.29 billion in sales, up 7% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.59, up 20%. Both the top and bottom lines came in above consensus expectations of analysts polled by Visible Alpha.
However, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Barbara Rentler stressed that the retailer is taking a "cautious approach" to projecting its sales outlook.
"Our low-to-moderate income customers continue to face persistently high costs on necessities, pressuring their discretionary spending," Rentler said. "In addition, our prior year sales comparisons become more challenging during the second half of the year amidst an external environment that is uncertain and volatile."
Shares of Ross rose 1.6% to $154.97 as of 12:30 p.m. ET Friday. They are up 12% in 2024.
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Investopedia
6 hrs
10
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Despite recent volatility across the stock market and in other assets, most individual investors remain somewhat optimistic about their portfolios, according to Investopedia’s latest survey.
Sharp downturns in major stock indexes over the first two weeks of August may have rattled individual investor confidence, but most remain relatively optimistic about their portfolios. According to Investopedia’s recent survey of its readers, nearly two-thirds describe their sentiment as “optimistic” or “cautiously optimistic.”
While that level of optimism is slightly lower than was registered in June, 42% of those surveyed said they ‘bought the dip’ during the first two weeks of August, while 26% expect higher returns for the market over the next six months. Less than one-third describe themselves as ‘worried’ about recent market events.
While investors mostly feel optimistic about the markets, renewed concerns about a potential recession appear to be curbing their enthusiasm, albeit slightly.
Just over a quarter of respondents are expecting stock market returns of over 5% in the next six months, an eight percentage point drop from June. Meanwhile 27% are expecting another correction—a drop of 10% or more in the S&P 500—over the next three months.
Of those expecting another drop in the stock market, nearly three-quarters think the decline will be tied to a recession, while two-thirds believe that high valuations will be to blame.
As for those concerns about overvaluation, investors continue to point to artificial intelligence-related stocks and mega-cap tech. That sentiment has been consistent, and barely unchanged for the past year as stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Meta (META) have delivered exceptional returns that have stretched their valuations.
Forty-four percent of respondents still feel cryptocurrencies are overvalued, while less than 30% think housing stocks are overheated.
The upcoming presidential election has topped our list of investors’ biggest concerns for the past several months, and the recent shake-up of the Democratic ticket has only made that event even more uncertain.
While the election is still our readers' top concern, the recent uptick in unemployment and a slowdown across some sectors of the economy like manufacturing has spurred worries about a possible recession.
Hopes for a so-called ‘soft landing’ engineered by the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates appear to have faded slightly as 61% of respondents think a recession is likely in the next twelve months. That’s a nine-percentage point increase from June, and it’s not a surprise that a recession is now respondents' second biggest concern, followed by an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
While investors may be worried about the election, inflation, and overvaluation, it would not deter many of them from buying more individual stocks if they had an extra $10,000 to spend. Individual stocks remain the top choice of our respondents, as they have for most of the year, followed by ETFs and stock index funds. CDs were their top choice throughout most of 2022 and 2023 as the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates to battle inflation, but with the prospect of lower interest rates on the horizon, investors are in search of higher yields from equities and equity-related products.
Investopedia’s readers are as consistent as they are loyal to their favorite stocks. While many believe that the Magnificent 7 and large-cap A.I. stocks are overvalued, those stocks largely make up the majority of their favorites, according to our most recent survey. A notable return favorite into our readers’ top ten holdings is chipmaker AMD (AMD). Many of our reader favorites, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL), are also among the most-widely held stocks in equity mutual funds, index funds and ETFs. Investors of all sizes have ridden these stocks to incredible gains over the past decade and are loathe to give up on them.
This survey was fielded online to Investopedia readers 18+ living in the U.S. from August 7-12, 2024. Readers must currently hold and manage investments to qualify. Participation in the survey is entirely voluntary; sample composition reflects U.S. 18+ reader base.
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Gistlegit
10 hrs
14
VDM is facing severe criticism for his recent actions involving Prophet Jeremiah Fufeyin's miracle water, which he administered to Muslim beggars. This act has been met with significant outrage within the Muslim community, particularly in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), where it is viewed as a provocative and insensitive gesture that disrespects the religious diversity in Nigeria.
