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The number of people applying for unemployment insurance for the first time surged last week, nearly twice the pace economists expected.

Some 20,000 more people applied for unemployment insurance last week, growing to 243,000 total. That's far more than the 229,000 total economists surveyed by the and expected.

Total new claims matched the highest number reported so far this year, which was first reported early last month.

The jump comes as the Federal Reserve is starting to keep a particular eye on the labor market. As inflation comes down and the labor market softens, central bankers want to ensure that unemployment doesn't jump.

"Jobless claims came in higher than expected and that’s a reminder of the main risk to the current economic expansion and bull market," wrote Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.

However, the weekly jobless claim number is highly volatile and prone to large swings. Economists typically use a rolling average of initial jobless claims to get a more stable measure. The four-week moving average was up 1,000 from the previous week to 234,750."Recent data are indicative of a modest softening in the labor market, but there is no cause for alarm just yet," wrote Moody's Analytic Economist Dante DeAntonio. "Despite the recent volatility, the four-week moving average of initial claims was essentially unchanged from the June payroll reference period to that for July."

Most of the labor market's recent slowdown has been in hiring, DeAntonio wrote, which is exactly what the Federal Reserve intended when it set out to fight inflation. The central bank has set its influential fed funds rate at a 23-year high for the past 12 months to make borrowing more costly for businesses and consumers. As borrowing is discouraged, so is spending, which brings down inflation, the Fed theory goes.

"To the extent that the job market remains robust and unemployment levels remain low, the economy will continue to expand – albeit at a slowing pace – and that is what will continue to propel this bull market to new heights, even if there is some volatility and pullbacks along the way," Zaccarelli wrote.

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M&T Bank (MTB) shares finished Thursday higher after the bank beat expectations with its second-quarter results.

The firm reported earnings per share (EPS) of $3.73 on revenue of more than $2.3 billion, down from $5.05 per share on revenue of $2.6 billion a year earlier. The results beat analyst estimates in both cases.  

Net interest income was $1.72 billion, down 4% from $1.79 billion a year earlier. The bank’s average loans and leases rose by $792 million, while its average investment securities increased $1.1 billion in the period. 

M&T stock finished the day up about 1.7%, leaving them up more than 20% this year. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) fell 1.5%.

The company grew its commercial and industrial and consumer-loan portfolios while reducing its exposure to commercial real-estate, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Daryl Bible said in a statement. 

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Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI unveiled GPT-4o mini, its latest artificial intelligence (AI) model that is smaller and lower cost than its predecessors, in a move that could help advance the AI pioneer's position in the AI race.

GPT-4o mini offers some of the capabilities of OpenAI's larger models at a lower cost, and could appeal to those looking for AI systems for specific uses that don't require the same computing power as bigger models, which could attract new customers and expand the company's AI leadership.

OpenAI claimed that GPT-4o mini outperformed GPT-3.5 Turbo, the company's previous task-specific model, as well as some competitors' small model offerings including Google parent Alphabet's (GOOGL) Gemini Flash and Amazon-backed (AMZN) Anthropic's Claude Haiku.

While GPT-4o mini outperformed its small model peers in several benchmarks, it still lagged OpenAI's larger GPT-4o.

The company did not compare GPT-4o mini's performance to that of Microsoft's small model, Phi-3 Mini. As a major OpenAI investor, Microsoft could potentially stand to benefit from OpenAI's gains from GPT-4o mini.

GPT-4o mini's low cost and better performance compared to alternative small models could attract more customers to OpenAI. The small model could also be especially beneficial to OpenAI as an Apple (AAPL) partner as a new AI-supercharged iPhone model is expected in the coming months.

The new model is available to ChatGPT Free, Plus, and Teams users as of Thursday, as well as developers. Enterprise users are set to have access starting next week.

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Investors are optimistic about the stock market and expect to see more gains in the third quarter, according to a recent survey.

A survey from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management released Wednesday found that more than half of respondents, or 59%, anticipate that the equities market will rise in the third quarter. The online survey reflected the responses of nearly 900 self-directed investors collected since the start of the month.

Some 61% of respondents consider themselves bullish about the quarter, the survey reported, about in line with a quarter earlier.

The market has been strong in the past year, lifted in part by of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI)-related shares and tech stocks broadly. Asked which sectors had the most potential in the third quarter, survey respondents remained bullish on tech, with with 57% of respondents citing it as one of those with the top potential—up from the second quarter. Energy was mentioned by nearly half.

The S&P 500 has generally risen to start the second half, though it's off recent highs.

Respondents to the Morgan Stanley survey remained uncertain about the economy and the political climate. Investors’ top concerns were inflation (54%), the 2024 election (34%), market volatility (22%), and a potential recession (20%). 

Although inflation has eased recently, it still remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed has indicated it will reduce its benchmark rate as inflation cools, but it’s uncertain when that will happen. Just 13% of respondents said they think the Fed will start lowering rates this quarter, while 41% said they believe it will wait until the fourth quarter to ease rates. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders see a roughly 98% probability that the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting. The tool forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

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A lady has shared how her intentional boyfriend surprised her with a chef to prepare meals of her choice

She said she told this man she wanted to eat toast bread with scrambled eggs and hot chocolate, and he sent a whole chef to her house, and it’s been the most wholesome experience.

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