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Homebuilder confidence remained subdued in July, dropping to its lowest reading since December as high borrowing costs weighed on sentiment.
The National Association of Home Builders' index of confidence came in at 42 in July, down a point from the prior month—a reading that shows a majority of builders believe the market is in poor condition. Economists were expecting the index to move up one point instead, according to a survey of economists by the and Dow Jones Newswires.
Homebuilders were down on their current sales and traffic of prospective buyers. However, they were slightly more optimistic about expected sales in the next six months.
High mortgage rates have discouraged potential buyers, as high borrowing costs pressure housing affordability. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still hovering near 7%, but homebuilders are hoping that interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve can change that.
“While buyers appear to be waiting for lower interest rates, the six-month sales expectation for builders moved higher, indicating that builders expect mortgage rates to edge lower later this year as inflation data are showing signs of easing,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris.
The central bank's influential fed funds rate and traders' expectations of it affect the trajectory of mortgage rates.
Investors seem to think that trajectory is on the right track, as homebuilder stocks rallied on that same optimism Tuesday. Shares of D.R. Horton (DHI), Toll Brothers (TOL), PulteGroup (PHM), KB Home (KBH) and Lennar Corporation (LEN) all traded more than 3% higher.
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How Unchanged Import Prices Could Be Good For Your Wallet
Import Prices Were Unchanged In Jun...
Investopedia
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Import prices were unchanged in June which could be a good sign for U.S. consumers.
The flat month comes after a 0.2% decline in May, which was the first decline in import prices all year, according to a report released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expected import prices to fall further in June, according to a survey from the and .
However, the static import prices are still good news for consumers who often end up paying higher prices for more expensive imports.
"Lower import costs, partly due to a strong U.S. dollar boosted by high-yield investments, are benefiting the U.S," wrote Kyra Kendrick, economist at Moody's Analytics.
"This strength lowers import prices and affects U.S. export pricing, leading to declining terms of trade," Kendrick said. "While this may slow national income growth, it also encourages domestic productivity investments and cost-cutting, helping to contain inflation pressures at home."
Export prices did indeed fall, moving lower by 0.5%, but it was a slower decline than in the previous month.
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Investopedia
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Market participants are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will start cutting its benchmark interest rate in September, with more cuts to follow before the end of the year, even as Fed officials say they need to see more economic data before adjusting policy.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data, traders are pricing in a 100% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its influential fed funds rate in September. That's up from the 73% likelihood priced in just a week ago.
Market participants are also pricing in a high probability that once the Fed makes its first move in September it will continue cutting at the November and December meetings of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Traders predict there's a roughly 60% chance the fed funds rate will be 50 basis points lower than its current rate in November and 75 basis points lower in December.
The increased expectations follow a number of data releases that have shown inflation is moderating and economic activity is slowing, an indication that the Fed's two-year campaign of high interest rates is having its intended effect.
Fed officials have acknowledged the progress in the fight against inflation, but have said they will be reliant on economic data to give them more confidence that inflation is moving toward their annual goal of 2%. They've also said they are watching labor market conditions, which could spur the Fed to act if they deteriorate significantly.
On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said central bankers are making rate-cut decisions on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis, declining to give a timeline for rate cuts.
A rate cut would give some relief to businesses and households pressured by high borrowing costs, as rates on mortgages, credit cards and other loans would follow the Fed's lead. The fed funds rate, which have been at a two-decade high for the past year, influences costs on all sorts of loans.
While market participants are increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates soon, economic data and comments from Fed officials could change that quickly. At the start of this year, fed fund futures indicated that traders were pricing in six rate cuts by the Fed this year, but those expectations quickly faded as inflation was more stubborn than expected in the first several months of 2024.
The next FOMC meeting will be convened in two weeks, but traders see almost no chance of a rate cut at that meeting. Instead, they'll be scrutinizing the FOMC's post-meeting statement and what Powell says during his press conference for clues on when the Fed might act.
At its last meeting in June, a quarterly survey of FOMC members showed that they expected just one rate cut before the end of the year.
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Investopedia
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Shares of State Street (STT) rose after the financial services firm reported record-high numbers for two key measures of assets held and its results beat forecasts, aided by rising interest income and management fees.
The bank posted assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) of $44.31 trillion, and and assets under management (AUM) of $4.42 trillion, both record highs, in its latest quarterly release. (AUC and AUM essentially measure assets for which it does, and doesn't, make allocation decisions, respectively.)
Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.15, with revenue higher by 2.6% to $3.19 billion. Both were above Visible Alpha's consensus estimates.
Interest income was up 6.4% to $735 million, and fee revenue increased 1.5% to $2.46 billion, boosted by an 11% jump in management fees.
CEO Ron O’Hanley said that the company’s strong revenue growth and “well-controlled expenses” resulted in an 11.9% return on equity (ROE).
State Street raised its provision for credit losses to $145 million from $136 million a year earlier. The firm said that reflected “an increase in loan loss reserves associated with certain commercial real estate loans.”
State Street shares traded at their highest level in more than a year, rising some 3% in recent trading.
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Instablog9ja
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Nigerian policemen led by the Divisional Police Officer (DPO) of Gwarinpa in Abuja, Babale Hamza Galadima, in a Gestapo manner, have invaded Hotel VIMA in the 1st Avenue area of Gwarinpa, arresting all occupants and d£str@ying properties in the hotel.
According to Sahara Reporters, obtained videos of the d£str¥ction left by the policemen during the incident which occurred on Sunday night at about 11:30 pm. The pictures and CCTV videos on Monday showed doors and room furniture d£stroyed by the policemen during the invasion.
Whereas, the hotel guests arrested and taken to the Gwarinpa Police Division have been asked to pay N500,000 as bail to secure their freedom.
Saddened by the incident, the Manager of the hotel identified as Wayne said that all the staff of the hotel were still detained in the station as of 5:45 pm on Monday, July 15, 2024.
He said, “At about 11:30 pm on 14th of July 2024, some men of the Nigerian police stormed our hotel in a way that we thought it was a robb£ry seen. All customers and visible staff were har@§sed, b£aten and deh¥man#sed, property was d£stroyed, and everyone on the scene was arrested and taken to the station.
The operation lasted for about an hour, only the receptionist and gateman were allowed to stay back.
Some laptops were taken, money from the Front Desk was taken and some of our customers’ money was also taken.
The following footage from our CCTV captured,” he narrated.
Some CCTV footage the manager shared with Sahara Reporters showed staff and guests including a family with little kids marched outside and ordered to sit on the floor.
It also showed one of the police officers carrying st#cks which were said to have been used to b£at up the hotel guests. In one of the videos of the aftermath of the invasion, the doors were brok£n and chairs were dam@ged. The food one of the guests was eating was seen abandoned on a table.
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Investopedia 4 hrs 9
Shares in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) closed at a record high on Monday, buoyed by gains in some of the conglomerate’s key holdings, including Apple (AAPL), American Express, (AXP), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Investors typically view the performance of the company’s stock, which trades at about 23 times analysts' full-year operating profit projections, as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy due to its diversification across a broad range of industries.
Berkshire Hathaway shares added 2.4% to finish Monday's session at $434.42.
Amid the stock’s move to record highs, we’ll take a closer look at the technicals on the Berkshire Hathaway weekly chart and identify important levels to watch out for.
Since bottoming out midway between the 50- and 200-week moving averages (MAs) in early October last year. Berkshire shares have trended consistently higher. More recently, the price broke out from textbook symmetrical triangle, a chart pattern that indicates a continuation of the current uptrend.
Importantly, the initial breakout from the pattern occurred on the highest weekly trading volume since late February, suggesting buying conviction behind the move. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) sits just below overbought levels to confirm strong price momentum in the stock.
Below, we’ll use two different technical analysis techniques to predict near-term and longer-term price targets. These levels help us determine a general area on the chart where Berkshire shares may climb to and encounter resistance if the price continues to trend higher.
To forecast a potential short-term price target, we can use the measuring principle. We do this by calculating the distance between the symmetrical triangle’s two trendlines near their widest point and apply that amount to the breakout area. For example, we add $50 to $415, which projects a target at $465
Investors can speculate a longer-term price target by using a chart overlay of prior price action. This works by taking the bars pattern from the uptrend that preceded the symmetrical triangle and applying it to the most recent swing low. In this case, we take the bullish bars pattern between October 2023 and February this year and align it with the April low, which indicates a possible upside target of around $500.
Investors looking for a key pullback level should keep an eye on the $415 area, where Berkshire shares would likely find buying interest near the symmetrical triangle’s top trendline. A more significant retracement could see the stock revisit a multi-month uptrend trendline around $390, with this location also sitting in close proximity to the 50-week MA.
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