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The latest legal back-and-forth over student loan debt relief could once again end up in the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority blocked President Joe Biden’s previous efforts.
For the past several months, the Saving for a Valuable Education (SAVE) repayment plan has been in limbo as two cases—initially led by the attorneys general of Missouri and Kansas, respectively—work their way through federal courts. These cases have resulted in a back-and-forth for borrowers that ultimately resulted in forbearance for all those enrolled in the income-driven plan until the legal issues can be resolved.
This has left borrowers with an unclear path ahead as the complicated court proceedings leave the Department of Education and the states that are suing to block the repayment plan to interpret rulings and file a web of legal actions.
Last week, the Biden administration asked the Supreme Court to lift a lower court's ruling that had blocked the SAVE plan until the Missouri case is resolved. The filing from the Department of Justice also asked the high court to deny an appeal filed in the Kansas case.
Here's what you need to know about the legal battle surrounding the SAVE plan.
Two parallel and similar court cases were filed by a contingency of Republican-led states in the spring. These cases seek to block the SAVE plan, arguing that the eventual cost is so high that only Congress—not the White House on its own—should be allowed to authorize the expenditure.
The plan is more generous to borrowers, who would only be required to pay 5% of their discretionary income and have the remaining balance forgiven after 20 or 25 years. Implementing the plan would cause a $475 billion hit to the federal budget over 10 years because of lower student loan payments and more debt forgiveness, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania estimated last year.
“The President is unilaterally trying to impose an extraordinarily expensive and controversial policy that he could not get through Congress,” Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey said in a statement earlier this year when he launched one of the lawsuits against the plan.
However, according to Department of Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, student loan debt is a crisis the administration is committed to mitigating.
“It wasn’t so long ago that a million borrowers defaulted on their student loans every single year, mainly because they couldn’t afford the payments," Cardona said in a statement. "The SAVE plan is a bold and urgently needed effort to fix what’s broken in our student loan system and make financing a higher education more affordable in this country."
The states and the Federal government haven't even made arguments about the actual merits of the case yet—many of the squabbles thus far have been about what to do with the program until the court case is resolved. That hasn't kept it from being complicated.
"We're at the string board point of the litigation," said Persis Yu, deputy executive director and managing counsel of the Student Borrower Protection Center.
The first order of business for judges has been a legal concept called Standing, which has been important in many student loan-related cases. For judges to rule on the merits of a case, a plaintiff must prove they have been harmed by the defendant's law-breaking and the court can fix it. In the Kansas case, the judge ruled that a majority of the states in the coalition (including Kansas) did not have reason enough to bring a case against the SAVE Act.
The next was whether the program would be able to move forward while the cases were being litigated. Judges had different thoughts on how the implementation of the plan could proceed, causing headaches for borrowers trying to keep up.
In the Missouri case, an appeals court has blocked the implementation of the SAVE plan until the case can be resolved. In the Kansas case, lawyers are awaiting for the appeals to be settled by the Supreme Court.
Although it is a moot point because of the block in the Missouri Case, Alaska appealed the court ruling that allowed changes to move forward on July 1 in the case originally brought by Kansas. That case has been appealed all the way up to the Supreme Court.
While the appeals only pertain to what happens to the plan while the case is disputed, the Supreme Court could choose to take on the case in its entirety. In fact, the Texas Solicitor General as a part of Kansas' original case has asked that the highest court do just that—and to go even further and not hear oral arguments.
The highest court in the nation stuck down a broad student loan forgiveness plan last summer in a case that echoes some of the beats in the cases around the SAVE plan.
If the Supreme Court does not take up the case, both cases will continue to play out in federal courts and will move on to making arguments about whether the Biden administration has the authority to implement the SAVE Act.
No matter how the case plays out, borrowers are caught in the middle of a legal drama that may drag on for an extended amount of time, experts said.
"The best advice I can give borrowers right now is to not make any drastic decisions," said Betsy Mayotte, President of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors. "This situation is truly uncharted territory and it’s going to take the Department of Education and the courts some time to work this through."
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The Lagos Directorate of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, on Monday, August 19, 2024, arraigned one Ayodele Toyosi for an alleged investment fr@ud before Justice A.M. Lawal of the Lagos State High Court sitting in Ikeja.
The defendant was arraigned alongside his companies, Reaprite Global Limited and Agrorite Limited, on an 11-count charge bordering on obtaining by false pretence and stealing to the tune of N600,150,000 and $50,000.
Investigation revealed that the defendant allegedly defr@uded a number of persons on the pretence that he had an interest-yielding investment in agricultural export, EFCC said in a statement on Monday, August 19.
According to EFCC, Ayodele defrauded one K. C. Akoson Investment Limited and Kenneth C. Maduakor of N500 million. He was said to have collected the money under the guise of helping them to transfer it to their importers in China.
He was said to have used the money to purchase a property known as Plot 17 Pinnock Beach Estate, Anyiran Town, Eti Osa Local Government Area, Lagos.
The offence is contrary to Section 1(1)(a) and punishable under Section 1(3) of the Advance fee Fraud and Other Fr@ud Related Offences Act, 2006.
He pleaded “not guilty” to the offence and Justice Lawal adjourned the matter till August 21, 2024 for the hearing of the bail application and also remanded the defendant in Ikoyi Correctional facility.
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Major U.S. equities indexes moved higher to open a new trading week.
Over the next few days, investors will likely scrutinize comments from central bank officials for insight into upcoming interest-rate decisions, capped off by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.
The S&P 500 was up 1.0% on Monday, closing in positive territory for the eighth consecutive session. Strength in communication services and technology stocks underpinned gains of 1.4% for the Nasdaq, while the Dow added 0.6%.
Shares of independent natural gas producer EQT Corp. (EQT) popped 4.9% higher, notching the top daily performance in the S&P 500. EQT stock got a boost from an uptick in natural gas futures prices, which were up around 5% on Monday. Forecasts of hot weather and light production suggest tightening supply and demand for natural gas. Last week, analysts at Wells Fargo upgraded EQT stock to "overweight," citing operational and balance sheet improvements.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares gained 4.5% after the semiconductor firm announced its planned acquisition of ZT Systems, a provider of data center infrastructure. AMD says the cash-and-stock deal, which was valued at $4.9 billion, will enhance its artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem.
After dipping during the first half of August amid concerns about soft lithium prices, Albemarle (ALB) shares resumed the recovery that began late last week, jumping 4.3%. On Friday, BMO Capital Markets reiterated its "outperform" rating on Albemarle stock. Analysts remain optimistic about a recovery in the lithium market and expressed confidence in the upcoming performance of the metal's largest producer.
Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its positive outlook on Nvidia (NVDA), and shares of the AI chip behemoth advanced 4.4%. Analysts expect robust demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) to drive outperformance by Nvidia's data center segment, despite concerns about the delayed launch of the company's next-generation chip architecture called Blackwell.
Shares of Match Group (MTCH), operator of Tinder, Hinge, and other online dating platforms, added 4.0%. In its most recent earnings report, released July 30, Match announced plans to cut its global workforce as it aims to reduce costs. The stock has drawn attention throughout the year from activist investors, including Starboard Value and Elliott Investment Management, which have encouraged Match to explore a variety of value-creation opportunities.
Shares of printer and computer manufacturer HP (HPQ) slipped 3.7%, posting the biggest loss of any S&P 500 constituent on Monday, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to "equal-weight." Analysts said they saw limited upside potential for HP's valuation and forward earnings estimates, arguing that markets have already priced in the likely catalysts for the company including a potential recovery in the PC market.
Starbucks (SBUX) shares cooled down on the first day of the new trading week, falling 2.7%. The stock posted massive gains early last week after the announcement that current Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) CEO Brian Niccol would be moving to the coffee giant. While Niccol hopes to duplicate the turnaround he oversaw at Chipotle, he will face numerous challenges in his new position, including increasing competition in China, which is currently Starbucks' second-largest market.
Shares of Estee Lauder (EL) lost 2.2% after the company reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter. Although quarterly sales and profits topped forecasts, the company guided below expectations for the year ahead, citing soft demand in China and North America. Estee Lauder also announced CEO Fabrizio Freda plans to retire at the end of fiscal 2025.
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The chair of the Federal Reserve is set to give a major speech Friday at a pivotal time for the central bank’s monetary policy.Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyo., will be closely followed by financial markets. Investors are looking for signals that the Fed is on course to cut its benchmark interest rate from its current quarter-century high when policymakers next meet in September, as is widely expected. They'll also be listening for any hints about how the Fed will approach rate cuts afterward.
The speech comes as Fed officials are shifting the central bank’s focus from fighting inflation to preventing a spike in unemployment. By law, the Fed is tasked with keeping both inflation and unemployment under control.
Should the Fed cut in September, it would be the first time the central bank has lowered interest rates since 2020, when it slashed the fed funds rate to near zero to stimulate the economy after the onset of COVID-19.The Fed began raising the rate in March 2022 to counteract an alarming spike in inflation. Raising the federal funds rate pushed up borrowing costs on mortgages, credit cards, car loans, and other loans in an attempt to slow the economy by discouraging borrowing and spending.
With inflation now having fallen close to the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate, and the job market showing signs of faltering, Fed officials have said they’re considering rate cuts in September.
The speech will also be a chance for financial market participants to gauge how Powell is thinking about recent economic data.
The economic outlook has been on a roller coaster ride since the fed chair last made public remarks in July. In early August, a spate of economic reports showed unemployment rising and manufacturing slowing, raising fears that the economy could fall into a recession. Later in the month, reports showing inflation slowing down and retail spending accelerating sent the opposite message.Many economists expect Powell to signal that September rate cuts are on the table, confirming what he said in a July press conference.“We expect Mr. Powell to give his clearest signal yet that the FOMC will ease policy in September and at one other meeting this year,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a research note.
However, Fed officials in recent speeches have stressed that the central bank’s moves will depend on what economic data shows. They may cut rates more aggressively the more inflation slows and the more the labor market seems at risk of imploding under the weight of high interest rates.
That means Powell is expected not to offer any specifics about how much the Fed will cut rates in September or at future meetings. An open question is whether the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in September, or go for a steeper half-point cut.
“Ultimately, we think data dependence by the Fed could limit the forward guidance Powell provides as it will be difficult to pre-commit to a particular trajectory,” Justin Weidner and other analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a commentary.
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The highlight of this week will be the annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which kicks off on Thursday night and runs through Saturday. And the show-stopper of that event, at least for Wall Street, is likely to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, scheduled for 10 a.m. ET Friday.
The annual symposium comes at a critical juncture for the U.S. economy. Interest rates have been at their highest level in decades for more than a year, pushing inflation down and slowing economic activity. The unemployment rate simultaneously has risen, giving Wall Street reason to believe the Fed will begin to cut interest rates in September.
And the Fed has set the stage for interest-rate cuts. After years of focusing on inflation, policymakers have in recent months begun saying they're equally concerned with the strength of the labor market, the second component of the Fed’s dual mandate. Powell echoed those comments after the Fed’s most recent policy meeting.
Investors will be looking to Powell’s speech on Friday for any hints about the trajectory of monetary policy, including the magnitude of the Fed’s first interest-rate cut in years and the potential pace of subsequent cuts.
Analysts don’t expect Powell’s speech to deviate too much from his press conference after July’s Fed meeting.
“He will likely acknowledge that the Fed is prepared to ease quickly if labor markets deteriorate,” wrote Nomura analysts in a note on Friday. The health of the labor market was called into question earlier this month when data showed the unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% in July, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator.
“That said, we expect his remarks to be more balanced than at the July press conference–noting upside inflation risks, as well,” the analysts added.
Recession fears were quelled somewhat last week after a strong consumer spending report and a slight decrease in unemployment claims pointed to the economy’s resilience.
Subsequently, markets settled into a relative calm as expectations for Fed rate cuts moderated. Last Monday, traders were pricing in a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points next month, according to federal funds rate futures trading data. Now, markets see just a 23% chance of a cut of that magnitude.
The market's quiet, Nomura notes, "should allow Powell to emphasize that the Fed can be patient and data-dependent, pushing back modestly on recent market pricing for an aggressive start to the easing cycle.”
Economists at Deutsche Bank wrote Monday that they expect Powell won’t “pre-commit to any particular rate-cut trajectory but [will] signal that the Fed has gained sufficient confidence that it will soon be appropriate to begin easing policy.”
Even a dovish stance from Powell might not have much of an impact on the market.
Bank of America Securities analysts recently noted that the S&P 500 historically has had a limited reaction to Jackson Hole. Granted, there are exceptions: Stocks plummeted in 2022 after Powell struck a hawkish tone when addressing the need to restore price stability.
But this year, they forecast, isn't likely to be exceptional. “With rate cuts already priced into the market, upside on even a dovish Jackson Hole speech is likely limited,” the analysts wrote.
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Power demand for data centers in the U.S. is expected to triple by 2030, fueled by artificial intelligence (AI) applications, Mizuho Research analysts said.
The rise in demand could drive growth for electric utilities stocks, the analysts said, as well as companies in the renewable energy industry, and more.
Electric utilities stocks like Constellation Energy (CEG), Duke Energy (DUK), and NextEra Energy (NEE) could be poised to benefit, the analysts said, as well as infrastructure providers like Equinix (EQIX).
The analysts said they expect AI to increase demand for renewables like solar and wind energy as well, given the tech sector's climate commitments. They added that based on their models, clean energy resources could supply more than half of electricity in the U.S. by 2030, supported by heightened demand driven by AI data centers.
First Solar (FSLR), GE Vernova (GEV), and Nextracker (NXT) are among the stocks that could get a boost from this trend, they said.
The analysts also said natural gas demand is expected to rise in the near term to keep up with the growing power needs of data centers.
They named Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and EQT (EQT) as natural gas stocks that could gain, as well as infrastructure picks including Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Williams Companies (WMB).
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