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While the economy is a top issue in this election, one thing voters aren’t too worried about is unemployment, even though it has played a bigger part in past elections.
A Gallup poll showed that while 43% of people cited economic issues as their top concern, just 2% specifically cited unemployment. One reason may be that unemployment has been relatively low, especially compared to historical levels. The 4.1% unemployment rate for October 2024 is the lowest going into a presidential election in more than two decades.
This is one of a series of articles Investopedia is doing around important economic indicators heading into the 2024 election. You can read more here:
However, the unemployment rate has played a bigger role in past elections, as voters have faced notably higher rates. Here’s how labor market measurements have impacted past presidential elections.
President Joe Biden won the 2020 election amid runaway inflation at the height of the economic downturn stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.
In April 2020, the unemployment rate hit 14.8%, the highest recorded rate in more than 70 years. By election day, voters were looking at an October unemployment rate of 6.8%, the highest election-season unemployment rate in eight years.
Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election against a backdrop of a 4.9% unemployment rate in October. The jobless rate that year mostly fluctuated in that range but was lower than in recent years as the job market recovered from the shocks following the 2008 financial crisis.
President Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 against one of the highest unemployment rates voters have ever faced on election day, as a quarter of voters in one poll said it was their top issue.
Obama won the presidency for the first time in 2008 when unemployment ascended to 6.5% in October 2008, steadily rising as the economy worsened. After peaking at 10.0% in 2009, the unemployment rate was 7.8% when he was reelected in October 2012.
Former President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004 with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, worse than the 3.9% unemployment rate when he was elected four years earlier. While the economy is often a top issue for voters, in the 2004 election, voters cited the U.S. war in Iraq as their top issue, according to a Gallup Survey.
History has shown that a high unemployment rate can impact presidential elections. Former President George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid in 1992 when unemployment was at 7.3%, nearly two percentage points higher than when he took office.
Similarly, a 7.5% unemployment rate in 1980 helped sink former President Jimmy Carter's reelection campaign. He had won four years earlier when the unemployment rate was slightly higher, and a third of voters in one poll cited it as their top issue.
Ronald Reagan was one former president who bucked that trend, winning reelection in 1984 when unemployment was at 7.4%, only marginally lower than when he took office, and coming after unemployment had been above 10% two years earlier.
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Shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) are rising and those of Reckitt Benckiser are gaining in London trading Friday, a day after a jury cleared the two infant formula makers of liability for a boy's debilitating intestinal disease.
The ruling by a Missouri state court jury Thursday is a rare legal win for Abbott Laboratories, maker of the Similac formula, and Reckitt, which produces the Mead Johnson formula, following their losses in similar trials involving necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), a life-threatening disease that affects the colon and intestine.
"The decision reinforces what we, the medical community and regulatory bodies have said: that preterm infant nutrition products are safe, and there is no reliable scientific evidence that they cause or contribute to cause NEC," Abbott said in a statement to
Reckitt echoed those remarks in a press release Thursday.
"Today's verdict is consistent with the scientific consensus that there is no established causal link between the use of specialized preterm hospital nutrition products and NEC, and that where human milk is unavailable or when supplementation is necessary, specialized preterm hospital nutrition products can provide essential, lifesaving nutrition," Reckitt said.
"This is the first victory for the two companies in a NEC state case after Abbott was ordered to pay $495m in July in the Gill case and Reckitt's Mead Johnson $60m in March in the Watson case," UBS analysts wrote Friday.
Reckitt shares are up 8% in London trading Friday but have lost 7% this year. Abbott shares are rising 5% and have gained 8% in 2024.
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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has explained why its operatives re-arrested Lagos socialite Idris Okuneye, popularly known as Bobrisky.
Bobrisky was detained by immigration officers at Murtala Muhammed International Airport while attempting to board a KLM flight to London via Amsterdam.
According to a senior EFCC official, Bobrisky’s re-arrest on Thursday night stemmed from his failure to respond to multiple EFCC invitations regarding allegations he made against the commission.
The EFCC source explained that Bobrisky’s claims involved bribery and corruption, with accusations that he paid N15 million to EFCC officials to dismiss money laundering charges against him, Vanguard reports.
The EFCC has denied these allegations, suggesting Bobrisky could face new charges for providing false information.
“We apprehended him in Lagos, and he will be transported to Abuja. He accused us of bribery and corruption, yet he repeatedly ignored our summons to substantiate these claims. Such serious allegations cannot be ignored.
Furthermore, he has also declined to appear before the National Assembly on this matter.
We had no option but to take him into custody to ensure he provides evidence to support his accusations,” the source said.
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Ford (F) is halting production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck for at least several weeks as it faces softening demand for its electric vehicles, according to a report.
The automaker will idle the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Mich, that manufactures the trucks starting in mid-November through Jan. 6, the report said. The company didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The production stop comes after Ford scaled back F-150 Lightning production in April by moving to just one shift at the facility.
Ford Model e, the company’s EV division, on Monday reported a loss of $1.2 billion for the third quarter. Revenue fell by a third year-over-year. Looking at the year to date, the unit's revenue is down 43% through the first nine months of 2024 compared with 2023.
Rival General Motors (GM) showed higher profitability from EVs when it reported earnings earlier this month.
Shares of Ford fell 8% Tuesday after its third-quarter results and are down about 15% year-to-date. The shares finished Thursday down a bit less than 2%.
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Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal fourth-quarter results after the bell Thursday that beat analysts' revenue expectations but missed on profit.
The iPhone maker delivered record September-period revenue of $94.93 billion, up 6% year-over-year and above the $94.58 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Visible Alpha.
Net income was $14.74 billion, or 97 cents per share, below expectations of $22.49 billion, or $1.48 per share. After stripping out a one-time income tax charge of $10.2 billion to reflect the impact of the reversal of the European General Court’s State Aid decision, adjusted EPS came in at $1.46.
Apple produced $46.22 billion in iPhone revenue, above expectations of $45.32 billion. However, the iPhone 16’s September 20 release date came with less than two weeks to go in the quarter, meaning the bulk of that came from iPhone 15 and older models.
The results come as the company is rolling out Apple Intelligence features, including a free iOS update for the iPhone 16 and other devices released Monday.
A clearer picture of iPhone 16 sales will come next quarter, with the bullish case being an "AI-driven super cycle," analysts at Wedbush wrote. The firm estimates that about 300 million iPhones globally have not been upgraded.
Shares of Apple fell more than 1% in extended trading. They had been 17% higher this year through Thursday's close.
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Amid a recent spate of data showing the economy humming along smoothly, one sector has consistently stayed out of whack and it’s a big one: housing.On Thursday, a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed rising housing costs have helped core inflation run higher than the Federal Reserve’s target 2% annual rate. A drop-off in homebuilding in the third quarter was a drag on the economy’s overall growth rate, according to a report from the bureau on the Gross Domestic Product Wednesday. Earlier in the month, data showed homebuilding languished and sales of existing houses skidded to their lowest in more than a decade in September.The beleaguered housing market is a stark contrast to other important pillars of the economy, which are running relatively smoothly: the job market is holding on to an extended winning streak, consumers are spending freely, and inflation is falling.
At the heart of the problem is the fact that high prices and high mortgage rates have pushed the cost of buying a house out of reach for people with typical incomes who previously could afford the payments. A mortgage payment on the typical newly bought home would take up 42% of a household's median income in August, up from 29% in January 2020, according to a housing affordability monitor created by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Housing problems are wreaking havoc on the overall economy, hurting family budgets and preventing people from moving to take advantage of job opportunities, among other ripple effects.
The housing market has been collateral damage in the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation.“When the Fed raises interest rates, it hits the housing industry hardest because It's the most interest rate sensitive sector,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in an interview with Investopedia.Mortgage rates hit record lows during the pandemic, as the Fed held its influential benchmark interest rate near zero to boost the economy. But when the Fed raised rates rapidly in 2022 to combat inflation, mortgage rates surged. By October 2023, the average rate offered for a 30-year mortgage hit a two-decade high of 7.79%, up from the record low of 2.65% in January 2021, according to Freddie Mac.
The whiplash virtually paralyzed the housing market, as homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic hesitated to sell their homes and exchange them for new mortgages at higher rates.As a result of that “lock-in” effect, there are far fewer homes on the market than before the pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors. And homebuilders haven’t been keeping up with the demand for new homes, partly because local zoning regulations restrict the construction of new houses where they’re most in demand. And on top of that, demand for bigger homes surged during the pandemic as workers adjusted to the new telecommuting lifestyle.“You've had this huge step change in the amount of living space that Americans want since the pandemic because so many more Americans work from home now or work from home on some days,” Adams said. “Demand for living space in the United States is just permanently higher than it was pre-pandemic. It’s the flip side of all those empty offices in big city downtowns.”All those forces have combined to keep prices repeatedly hitting record highs even though many buyers have been priced out of the market.
One part of that equation—mortgage rates—could improve in the near future.
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate from a two-decade high in September and plans further rate cuts in the coming months as inflation simmers down to its target of a 2% annual rate. While mortgage rates don’t always move in tandem with the fed funds rate, they are influenced by it. Forecasters at Fannie Mae expect mortgage rates to drop to the mid-5% range by the end of next year, compared to 6.72% as of last week.“2024 was a really tough year for the housing market,” Adams said. “2025 should be a better year because the Fed is cutting.”However, that outlook could be shifted depending on which party wins Tuesday's general election. Both presidential candidates have touted plans to ease the housing shortage, with Vice President Kamala Harris promising to build 3 million affordable homes and former president Donald Trump pledging to free up homes by deporting immigrants.
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