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The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation cooled slightly in June, paving the way for the central bank to rate cuts, likely in September. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 2.5% from the year before, down from 2.6% in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Friday’s PCE measure of inflation in June mirrors the trend shown by the Consumer Price Index earlier this month and was in line with economists' expectations.

The PCE measure of inflation is especially significant because it is the measure central bankers put the most stock in when setting the nation’s monetary policy. The Fed has held its influential fed funds rate at a 23-year high since last July in an effort to push inflation down to its 2% annual goal. 

Economists and traders expect the Fed will leave its key inflation rate at its current level when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets next week. However, the central bank is widely expected to start cutting rates in September.

"The second quarter’s encouraging inflation data has set the stage for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates," wrote Moody's Analytics Economist Matt Colyar.

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Eli Lilly (LLY) shares dropped more than 4% on Thursday, continuing a hasty retreat from their record high earlier this month, as investors assessed the possible impact of a promising new weight-loss injection developed by Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) on the drugmaker’s own weigh anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro. Last week, Eli Lilly shares tumbled after Swiss pharmaceutical firm Roche Holding AG said its new non-injectable weight-loss drug has shown encouraging early stage data.

Below, we take a closer look at Eli Lilly’s chart and point out important price levels to watch out for using technical analysis.

Eli Lilly shares have trended consistently higher since the 50-day moving average (MA) crossed above the 200-day MA in April last year to form a bullish golden cross signal. However, the stock’s technicals point to a potential reversal.

Firstly, as the drug maker’s stock climbed to a record high earlier this month, the relative strength index (RSI) made a comparatively lower peak to create a bearish divergence, indicating slowing buying momentum. Secondly, the price closed decisively below a multi-month uptrend line and the 50-day MA on Thursday, suggesting a breakdown of the longer-term trend.

Eli Lilly shares were down 0.1% at $820.00 in premarket trading about two hours before Friday's opening bell. The stock has lost 15% of its value since hitting its all-time intraday high of $966.10 on July 15.

If Eli Lilly shares continue their decline, investors should monitor three key areas on the chart where they could encounter support.

The first level to watch sits around $790, an area where the stock may attract buying interest near a horizontal line connecting an extended period of consolidation between February and May within the longer-term uptrend.

A close below this area could see a fall to the $725 region, where the price would likely find support from the lower portion of the consolidation period discussed above, which also currently closely aligns with the rising 200-day MA.

Finally, a more significant drop opens the door to a retest of the $625 level, where buyers may be happy to scoop up shares near a trendline linking the October and November 2023 swing highs with the low of a minor pullback in January this year.

If the current breakdown turns out to be a bear trap, which lures investors into selling before the price makes a prompt recovery, we can speculate an upside target by using a bars pattern.

We do this by extracting the trending move from April to July and applying it from Thursday’s low, which predicts a price target of around $1,060.

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After helping propel durable goods orders higher over the past several months, aircraft orders declined significantly in June, bringing the broader measure of business investment down with it.

Census Bureau data showed durable goods orders declined 6.6% in June from the prior month, reversing a four-month streak of gains powered by steady growth in transportation orders. It’s the largest one-month decline in the indicator since 2020.

Much of that decline can be traced back to transportation equipment orders, a subcategory of durable goods mainly comprising aircraft orders. It came in lower by 20% in June compared to May. Excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders were higher by 0.5% for the month.

The decline in durable goods orders was unexpected, as analysts surveyed by the and projected an increase of 0.3% for the month. Economists look at durable goods orders to indicate how businesses invest for future growth. 

“While the manufacturing environment is still struggling, this morning's data overstate recent weakness,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Shannon Seery Grein and Tim Quinlan. “Yet durables data are still consistent with a stalling in the industrial space.”

Economists said that Thursday's GDP report, which measures durable goods by how many were shipped, not ordered, shows that the industrial sector may be down, but not quite as bad as the dip in durable goods orders would indicate.

There likely won't be sustained improvement in the sector until the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates that have been held at decades-high levels for nearly a year, economists said. 

"Orders are likely to remain uneven until the Fed starts cutting interest rates in September,” wrote BMO Senior Economist Jay Hawkins.

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by September amid signs that the economy is slowing and inflationary pressures are subsiding.

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The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Police Command has deployed 4,200 officers ahead of a 10-day nationwide protest scheduled for August 1 to 10th.

The command’s spokesperson, Josephine Adeh, in a statement on Friday, July 26, said the deployment of the officers is “aimed at ensuring public safety, protection of protesters, and preventing protests from being hijacked by non-state actors”.

According to her, “The FCT Police Command, in anticipation of the planned nationwide protest by some human rights activists and Nigerian youths to publicly express their displeasure over hunger and hardship, has proactively deployed material and human resources at the command’s disposal across the nooks and crannies of the nation’s capital.

The proactive deployment, which is aimed at ensuring public safety, protection of protesters, and preventing protests from being hijacked by non-state actors, is characterised by visibility policing, the deployment of explosive ordinance devices (EOD) experts and personnel at various strategic locations, raids on identified black spots, uncompleted buildings/shanties, stop and search, vehicular and foot patrol and synergy with sister security agencies.”

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Shares of Dexcom (DXCM) tumbled over 40% in extended trading Thursday after the company reported second-quarter earnings that missed estimates and slashed its full-year revenue guidance.

The maker of glucose monitors said it now expects full-year organic revenue growth of 11% to 13%, down from its projection in April of 17% to 21%.

Dexcom's revenue in the second quarter grew 15% year-over-year to $1 billion, roughly in line with analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. However, net income of $143.5 million or 35 cents per share missed expectations.

“While Dexcom advanced several key strategic initiatives in the second quarter, our execution did not meet our high standards,” CEO Kevin Sayer said in a release, adding “we are taking action to improve our execution and best position ourselves for continued long-term growth.”

Dexcom also announced a $750 million stock buyback program.

Shares of Dexcom were down 40.1% at $64.50 in extended trading as of 5:40 p.m. ET Thursday following the release.

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If you’ve left your job and rolled over your retirement savings to an individual retirement account (IRA), there’s a chance you're missing out on hundreds or thousands of dollars worth of investment gains by leaving the money uninvested. 

A new study from Vanguard found that, in 2015, 28% of workers who rolled over their 401(k)s into IRAs left their savings in cash for more than seven years. Younger investors, women and people with smaller balances were more likely to leave the money uninvested, Vanguard said.

When you move on from a job, you have a few options with your 401(k) retirement-plan savings. You can leave the money where it is, move it to your new employer's 401(k), cash it out — at the risk of taxes and an early withdrawal penalty — or roll it over into an IRA. Experts tend to recommend the latter.

Priya Malani, founder of financial advisory firm Stash Wealth, says rolling the funds over to an IRA can offer more investment options and funds with lower expense ratios than 401(k)s. A rollover may also be a good idea for people to consolidate their accounts in one place, making the money easier to manage, according to Preston Cherry, founder of Concurrent Financial Planning.

Once the money is rolled over, experts remind you to complete the process by making sure you're putting that cash to work.

One example of the potential missed opportunity: Vanguard estimates that for investors under 55, rolling the money into a target-date fund is equivalent to an increase of at least $130,000 at age 65. Target-date funds shift investors' portfolio allocations toward more conservative investments as they age.

"Whatever you do, don't leave it in cash, and unless you are very close to retirement," Malani said. "Don't invest it conservatively or you'll be unnecessarily giving up growth potential and missing out on that valuable concept called compounding."

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